No. of Recommendations: 7
If we get constituents exactly at intervals, we can get perfect findings with this engine.
For Rayvt, I ran gtt against qqq for giggles, and here's what we found:
nteresting results on QQQ:
SPY QQQ
Buy & Hold +7.9%, -55% DD +8.0%, -83% DD
10mo SMA +7.7%, -25% DD +8.8%, -45% DD
GTT Growth +9.0%, -33% DD +9.7%, -69% DD
GTT Unemploy +9.4%, -34% DD +9.4%, -68% DD
GTT still boosts CAGR on QQQ, but the drawdown protection is weaker — QQQ fell so fast in the dot-com bust that the monthly signal couldn't get out fast enough (-69% vs -83% buy & hold). The 10mo SMA actually has the best risk-adjusted return on QQQ (Sharpe 0.56 vs 0.53 for GTT) because it doesn't stay invested during the early stages of crashes the way GTT does when growth looks healthy.
Key takeaway: GTT was designed for S&P 500. On a more volatile asset like QQQ, the pure 10-month SMA is arguably better on a risk-adjusted basis — it doesn't wait for the macro data to confirm the downturn.
