Always treat others with respect and kindness, even if you disagree with them. Avoid making personal attacks or insulting others, and try to maintain a civil and constructive tone in your discussions.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 5
So Prigozhin has agreed to end his insurrection, move to Belarus and disband the Wagner mercenary outfit, just one day after repeatedly announcing a mutiny and marching his soldiers unopposed through Russia to within hours of Moscow?
Umm. Something doesn't add up.
Putin went from being the second most powerful man in the world to the second most powerful man in Russia to the second most powerful but seriously damaged man in the world in 36 hours.
Well, it's a good thing Putin doesn't hold grudges.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Well, it's a good thing Putin doesn't hold grudges.
LOL
I suspect Prigozhin got tired of having his troops used as cannon fodder. It is pretty clear this is a no win situation for Russia.
Alan
No. of Recommendations: 5
I heard an interesting theory about why Prigozhin was "exciled" to Belarus. Namely, that this whole "coup" and unimpeded march to Moscow was a plan by Putin and Prigozhin to get him installed in Belarus, and seemingly on Putin's future hit list, when in reality he will "somehow" get control of the tactical nukes that Putin moved/moves to Belarus, and actually use them in some future attack on Ukrain. When that happens, Putin will have plausible deniability and claim this "lunatic" Prigozhin acted on his own and he, Putin, had nothing to do with it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Then there's this: (I have no idea on accuracy)
Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.
It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/...
No. of Recommendations: 1
I heard an interesting theory
I had a similar reaction; that it was somehow a trap to either 1) make Ukraine forces step up their counter-offensive, 'walking' into a grinder of some sort, or 2) Amass Wagner forces on the Belarus border.
One would think our satellites would spot any such movements unless it was done by somehow disguising all Wagner vehicles as commercial traffic.
No. of Recommendations: 1
One would think our satellites would spot any such movements unless it was done by somehow disguising all Wagner vehicles as commercial traffic.
I'm sure the CIA, NSA, NRO, and others are all over this. They will spot those movements, but likely won't tell us about them. Amateurs that pay for satellite images (those are big business, evidently) may also notice it. But the folks who need to know, will know.
I don't think they need a ruse to use Belarus. They would just use it. Belarus is a similar authoritarian regime that -I believe- is friendly towards Putin. If Belarus was offered something, I'm sure they'd let Putin use them as a staging area. No need for ruses.
Also, from what I'm reading, evidently Putin was furious; barely able to contain his fury during the speeches he issued. Unless he has some serious acting ability, it wasn't a ruse.
