A study of the detriments/benefits of the screen where you buy the top 10 or 5 or 1 1-year momentum Nasdaq100 stock(s) and hold for a month, then repeat.
First year and this year are partial; all other years the full year.
Even with a realistic spread you double the Nasdaq100 with the same drawdown risk except for 1 stock (which has a worse maximum drawdown).
I presented each year's results without the assumed spread. As you can see most years' CAGR beats the Nasdaq100's. Not a greater number of losing calendar years than the Nasdaq100 itself had.
The main negative to note is there would be MANY big drawdowns in MANY years but in those same years usually the strategy would make it back by year's end.

	nas100		10 stcks		5		1		10 stk	10 stk	5 stk	5 stk	1 stk	1 stk 
	cagr	mdd	cagr	mdd	cagr	mdd	cagr	mdd	worst	worst	worst	worst 	worst	worst
0% spread	11.5	-80.8	24.6	-71.5	27.8	-73.3	33.4	-89.9	23.96	-77	25.86	-77.8	29.5	
w .2 spread			23.9	-77.3	26.78	-77.5	32	-90.2	23.1	-77	24.1	-26.78	28.1	
feb 5 1985									ann'l cagr	drawdown	annl cagr	drawdown	annl cagr	drawdown
dec 31 85	10.112988	-12.092443	29.26	-15.1	44.1	-21.2	57	-33	17.7	-16.5	34.3	-27.4	24.6	-34.7
1986	5.258567	-3.083178	28.3	-23	40.6	-27.2	-10.4	-49.2	23.4	-27.8	34.8	-29.3	-23.6	-59.6
1987	-0.42071	-15.236847	52	-46	49	-52	99.7	-50.6	43.9	-49.5	34.1	-53.4	57.9	-53.5
1988	20.495609	-0.726449	25.4	-12.6	43.1	-16.2	83.3	-26	11.3	-14.4	30.1	-22.3	5	-41
1989	17.318949	-0.287927	61.9	-14.2	75.2	-18.9	76.8	-38	5.86	-17.2	62.1	-20.5	40.8	-43
1990	-8.810126	-23.355663	15.2	-36.3	10.2	-40.3	-10	-60.3	1	-38.4	-5	-48.7	-19.5	-67
1991	58.053272	-4.941127	144	-14.4	158.8	-16	223.5	-26	128.3	-15.3	131.9	-19.3	138.4	-32
1992	13.774762	-8.219828	9.5	-28	9.8	-32.2	12.7	-45	-4	-31.1	-5.3	-37.7	-13.1	-52.7
1993	13.819582	-10.081452	21.7	-29.4	24.2	-27.3	142.4	-32.3	15.9	-22.4	7	-32.3	85.2	-40.3
1994	-1.637974	-15.152705	5.9	-29	17.5	-32.6	16.6	-51.2	-7	-38.2	-1	-38.8	-5.2	-56.8
1995	35.853176	-1.385607	47	-20.3	36.6	-26.5	55.2	-26.2	37	-22.8	23.3	-31.8	49.7	-27.6
1996	21.931629	-6.936677	28	-22.6	17.9	-28	37	-46	13.1	-24.4	8.7	-34.7	10	-50.4
1997	11.098893	-11.848307	27.7	-25.6	34.3	-34.7	212.4	-30	15.5	-27.4	20.7	-37.7	166	-30
1998	35.369526	-12.863797	77	-25.7	108.4	-25.4	444.9	-25.7	52.9	-30	77.7	-31	328	-32
1999	79.495712	-2.733082	156.9	-27.8	210.6	-41	152.5	-58	138	-33	178.5	-45	62.6	-63
2000	-17.485722	-22.998171	-10.3	-53	-23.6	-55.3	-61	-75.6	-17.4	-57	-35.5	-61	-84	-85.9
2001	-29.017441	-54.014	-22.5	-46.1	-21	-47.2	-13	-50	-36	-51	-29.8	-58	-49	-50
2002	-42.008621	-57.816963	-22	-37	-22.5	-41.4	-45.5	-60.2	-28.4	-39.4	-28.1	-45.5	-57	-63
2003	59.112804	-3.871403	52.1	-12.6	66.5	-17.3	92.2	-29.1	23.8	-15.3	56.3	-21.5	41	-32.2
2004	12.960567	-12.1085	23.3	-24	26.5	-26	138.2	-25.3	9.5	-28	14.5	-30	115	25.5
2005	4.328349	-12.351278	11.9	-15.4	38	-13.3	27	-27.4	8	-19	26.9	-15.5	7.4	-30
2006	11.450953	-8.713487	4.6	-27	6.7	-32.4	6.2	-45	-5	-30	-7.3	-39	-41	-62.3
2007	9.737581	-1.645146	47.7	-17	45.9	-18.5	89.5	-25.3	40.3	-17.4	31.7	-20	43.3	-32.3
2008	-43.259415	-54.386059	-40	-46.6	-40.3	-49	-56.6	-65.8	-46	-51	-49.3	-55	-42.574627	-55
2009	62.469513	-14.155418	25.4	-15.4	9.5	-18	-19	-42.4	17.9	-18.1	1	-21.6	-48.1	-56.4
2010	22.28372	-5.683468	41.4	-19	34	-20.3	-11	-41.4	37	-19.7	27.7	-23.5	-34.2	-54
2011	-2.389229	-11.340731	2.4	-20.4	-1	-26	1	-59	-5	-22.6	-6.6	-32.8	-7	-64
2012	15.475595	0	21	-12	24.7	-12	31.2	-26	14.1	-12.9	14.4	-14	10.7	-31.9
2013	40.953392	0	72	-8.5	61.5	-12	22.4	-28	62	-9	50.6	-13.3	3	-40
2014	19.58008	-4.02692	34.1	-19	40	-20.2	47.1	-30	19.5	-20.1	20	-21.2	29	-29.9
2015	3.059628	-7.685346	14.5	-14	22	-4.75	-10	-39.2	9.9	-15.2	14.7	-21	-44.5	-50
2016	7.315393	-15.412898	16.9	8.9	-21.5	-25.3	138.6	-32	12.3	-22.7	19.5	-27.2	98.5	-35.1
2017	26.355804	0	5	-26	3.4	-28.3	-1	-49	26.7	-13.4	31.4	-16.1	59.1	-23.3
2018	-4.763682	-10.592468	5	-26	3.4	-28.3	1	-49	-2	-26	-4.1	-31.8	-26.5	-53.4
2019	35.890022	-2.292423	30.1	-15.5	37.2	-16.6	48.9	-26.7	24.7	-16.8	27.8	-21.5	32.6	-34.9
2020	38.137611	-25.386816	91.1	-36.5	125	-40.3	223.6	-60.8	79.7	-38.6	93.5	-43.5	66.2	-63.7
2021	19.313095	-2.334875	14.7	-28.9	14.2	-31.5	-1.3	-54	6.2	-31.1	1.4	34.2	-25.2	-59.2
2022	-23.313957	-29.951931	-32.6	-36.4	-35.8	-40.3	-52.4	-64	-38.7	-42	-43	-45.1	-65.4	-68.1
2023	35.80962	-0.403389	25.4	-13	20.5	-15.4	-3	-37.4	14.2	-16	9.7	-18.8	-13.2	-49.1
2024	7.662571	-2.914234	23.3	-28.2	12.9	-37.1	148.8	-30	9.6	30.3	0	-41.6	60.8	-46.2
2025	15.841774	-14.123734	42	-32	58.4	-37	41.2	-56.5	20.2	-35.5	19.6	-41.1	48.8	-59.2
														
times beat			27 of 44	2 of 44	27 of 44	2 of 44	23 of 44	0 of 44	23 of 44	0 of 44	24 of 44	0 of 44	21 of 44	0 of 44
nasdaq100			61%		61%		52%		50%		54%		47%	
														
														
														
														

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Mechanical Investing FAQ

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