No. of Recommendations: 13
I see a lot of non brk conversations here, so that is why I posted it here. ..
Not that my opinion matters, but I for one am fine seeing a few "drawdown" conversations here, marked OT.
It's not wildly off topic, and this board has a number of participants who understand that valuation matters enough that a lot of conventional wisdom about annuitization is, well, bunk.
The likely range of outcomes of any given stock/bond allocation or withdrawal rate is NOT primarily a function not of the historical distribution of outcomes.
The primary driver is the prospective real returns of the investments in question based on their valuation levels the day you start.
If real bond yields are currently around (say) around zero but averaged (say) 3.5% in the history you're considering, you should not think the historical outcomes are a useful guide to the likely distribution of future outcomes.
Or you should be prepared develop a taste for dog food.
This view is so different from the usual advice that you'd get drummed out of a retirement forum for raising it.
On a forum where people are used to the radical notion that price and value can differ, it doesn't raise too many hackles.
Jim
