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An observation I don't know what to make of:

- If you click on "Timeline" you see the chart of the Index since beginning of the year and below it that of the S&P for the same timeframe.
- Very often when the S&P falls a little the CNN Index practically crashes in a near straight line down. Very heavy sentiment reaction.
- In the other direction though that was the case only 2x: 1st half of April and end of July the market did rise and the CNN index moved strongly up.
- But the extreme down movements of the sentiment are a)sharper and b)more often happening.
- With the most extreme move happening right now: The market a little down --- but the sentiment crashing from 50 to this moment 23, from yesterday or so "Neutral" to full-blown (4 out of 5 Indicators) "Extreme Fear" (similar in July: Market a little down, sentiment immediatedly from 75 to 50).

This is baffling. My only idea: That everybody more and more EXPECTS the market to crash soon and therefore reacts to each little move down with more and more fear of that happening.

Not to forget: As usual this year when the market tanks Berkshire rises (and vice versa). Today, with the CNN index going down extremely, accordingly rising extremely. Everybody getting more and more nervous?

That everybody more and more EXPECTS the market to crash soon and therefore reacts to each little move down with more and more fear of that happening.

The flip side is the observation that the market does the opposite of what people expect. If everybody expects it to do something then everybody positions for that, thus preventing the market to do that.

Hence the saying, "Bull markets climbs a wall of worry."

> My only idea: That everybody more and more EXPECTS the market to crash soon and therefore reacts to each little move down with more and more fear of that happening.

You bet. Nowadays, rather than ask "will the market go up", I ask myself, "how much more positive news do we need for the market to go up, versus negative news for the market to go down?" At an ATH, it's more likely that we'll have that little negative news bringing the market down, than that *lot* of positive news to bring the market up. Everyone wants a guarantee, but all we can get are probabilities.

Seasonality: It's also Fall. The market (usually) goes down in Spring, peaks (usually) in Summer, falls (typically) in Fall, and rises again in Winter. We definitely had our fall in Spring, and last year's fall in Fall was late September.

Sentiment: I've been following the CNN Fear and Greed Index for four years. I've noticed that it's not really useful until it hits Extreme Fear, which it consistently did Thursday and Friday, with some Extreme Fear for a few hours on previous days. I place buy limits on EF on the weekend. In April, the buy limits triggered as stocks went *down*, but eventually came back up. Definitely not fun watching stocks I bought go down. MacroMicro is good for an Index chart over a longer period: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/50108/cnn-fear-and...

I have a Twitter thread, where I've been keeping track of the Index when it's at Extreme Greed and Seasonality: https://x.com/ced1106

Had by birthday yesterday. Tomorrow, I'm gonna buy some presents for my stock portfolio, or at least limits! :D I buy familiar stocks :P so have been picking up (LTBH accumulate) ROE_Cash stocks. I read the negative news about $AMZN and it's pretty interesting that the stock is no longer on ROE_Cash after being there for, what, years?

ROE_Cash GOOG MSFT NVDA META TSLA

fyi, CNN Fear and Greed Index has pretty much been at Extreme Fear this week. Last week it was on-and-off, with intraday Extreme Fear, until the last two days.

As said, I follow the ROE_Cash screen, only because of familiarity with the stocks. I put limit on the gaps of the stocks in the screen, and sometimes the Volume Price bar, another support/resistance indicator. The stock tends to go down after purchase, but recovers again. Usually. :P

For $TSLA, the gap closed this week. https://x.com/ced1106/status/1989075884620566762

CNN Index with 9 super low + S&P close to break through itīs 125 SMA = Interesting times.

The growth market funds seem to all be failing some while value funds are holding.

6- QEW : Equal-Wght'd ETF's  Momentum     Equity     LT-12m  IT-6m   IT-3m  ST-1m  6-LRRS()  TPPO()   IT-12w  IT-6w   ST-3w   Criteria()
Tuesday, November 18, 2025    Symbol     Style Box   ROC252  ROC126  ROC63  ROC21    %Rank   Status:  60:120  30:120  15:120    Status:
FT:Dow 30 Equal Weight       EDOW      Large Value    11.5%   10.6%   3.4%   0.3%    68%       BUY     2.29%   3.03%   3.82%      BUY
Invesco S&P 100 Eq Wght      EQWL      Large Value    13.6%   10.3%   3.8%  -1.1%    67%       BUY     2.21%   3.11%   3.36%      BUY
Direxion:NASDAQ-100 EWI      QQQE      Large Growth   13.8%    8.6%   5.5%  -4.1%    55%       BUY     1.72%   3.05%   2.82%      HTD
Invesco Rus 1000 EW          EQAL      Mid Blend       6.3%    9.4%   0.1%  -3.1%    28%       SELL    2.22%   2.16%   1.47%     SELL
Invesco S&P500 EWght         RSP       Mid Blend       7.1%    7.3%   0.0%  -2.5%    25%       SELL    1.63%   1.56%   1.11%     SELL
iShares:MSCI USA EW          EUSA      Mid Blend       6.8%    7.1%  -0.1%  -2.5%     8%       SELL    1.57%   1.45%   1.07%     SELL

GD_

Rayvt, if you happen to read this, any sense of whether this might be a short-term correction or the inception of something more protracted?

Rayvt, if you happen to read this, any sense of whether this might be a short-term correction or the inception of something more protracted?

Here's what my daily (11/18/25) update was:

Timing: Disconfirm recession, stay IN stocks
Timing: IN stocks (+7.6% vs. SMA) (# 108 consecutive weeks) not in recession

"Bull markets climb a wall of worry."


"True bear markets start slowly giving many months to get out as was the case in both 2000 and late 2007 into 2008. Fast declines, or panics typically retrace quickly and are better bought than sold for someone who is a trader.

It does not make sense to try to sell now before any indicator is triggered because (repeated for emphasis) there may not be a recession. It makes more sense to heed a trigger in the market for defensive action because in addition to it being objective and simple, stocks will turn down before the next recession, whenever that is, as a function of normal market behavior; capital markets turn down before the economy. Also if somehow there was a recession but stocks did not go down there would be no reason to sell.

Typically, waiting a few weeks here or there to get out when you are talking about a huge correction isn’t meaningful. It may feel like getting out of the market quickly is the right move at times, but that is our emotions talking. Research and experience show that trades driven by human emotions tend to be the wrong moves for the long-term, which is why we rely on our rules and data driven signals – both of which are constructed at a time when emotions are not high."
-- Newfound Research

"Fear is a stronger emotion than hope. The secret of making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. Never bet on the end of the world, It only happens once."-- Art Cashin, director at UBS Financial Services

"Over the last 100 years the stock market has experienced on average a 5% correction three times per year, a 10% correction once per year and a 20% correction once every three and a half years.

Stock market investors should expect to lose a little money quite often, see a correction occasionally, lose a decent amount every couple years and lose a lot of money on an Olympics-like schedule.
5% losses three times a year.
10% losses once a year.
15% losses once every two years.
20% losses once every three to four years
This realization that you know something is eventually going to happen, but you have no control over when or why it will happen can be extremely liberating as an investor. Understanding what you do and don’t know is a huge step in the right direction."
http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/01/how-market...

Ken Fisher has a few youtube videos where he talks about this, and how a true bear market behaves and what it does over its lifetime. You have plenty of time to get out of a true bear market.
PLENTY OF TIME
Sharp quick drops are a typical happening in a normal (non-bear) market.
Not fun, but that's the game.

"Bull markets climb a wall of worry."
..........
You have plenty of time to get out of a true bear market.
PLENTY OF TIME

Ahh, all those sayings, one for every opportunity and each oneīs taste. Like "Bull markets donīt die with a roar, they die on a whimper" (or similar, canīt remember). In line with Jimīs "You have a lot of time to get out ... 3 months later avarage/usually -10%" (or similar).

But does this apply to Maniaīs?

Nasdaq, Feb 2000: 4700
Nasdaq, May 2000: 3400 => 3 months later -30% !

What followed? Big recovery = "Thank God. The carnage is over!".
Hmm, not exactly:

Nasdaq, Aug 2000: 4200
Nasdaq, Nov 2000: 2500 => 2 months later -40%
Nasdaq, Mar 2001: 1850 => 4 months later another -25%

The mania did not die not on a whimper. It was a huge unstable mountain range that crumbled within a short time, with a huge roar. When would (IF!) you have left the mountain?

Ahh, all those sayings, one for every opportunity and each oneīs taste. Like "Bull markets donīt die with a roar, they die on a whimper" (or similar, canīt remember). In line with Jimīs "You have a lot of time to get out ... 3 months later avarage/usually -10%" (or similar).

But does this apply to Maniaīs?
Nasdaq, Feb 2000...

Good question.
Probably doesn't apply to a mania.


Digging out an old timing spreadsheet I have this for the S&P 500 at that time.

2/27/00  1409 SPX (^GSPC)
12/31/00 1289 Sell signal.  down 8.5% from 2/27/00
9/16/01   966 That's the low.  But we are out.  Down 31.4%
3/3/02   1164 Buy signal
4/7/02   1123 Sell signal  down 3.5% from 3/3/02
9/29/02   800 That's the low.  But we are out.  Down 31.3%
4/13/03   893 Buy signal.
12/30/07 1412 Sell signal

This was GTT timing on SPX. Worked as designed. Take a small loss and save yourself from a huge loss.
It took a loss of -9%, but avoided a loss of -31%
Then took loss of -4% but avoided loss of -31%


Here is the Nasdaq (QQQ, incl dividends) with the same timing signals.

3/8/99    42.34
2/26/00   84.47 
12/30/00  49.37 sell signal   Down 51.0% from 2/26/00
                BUT, up 16.6% from inception 3/9/99.     
9/15/01   28.84 same date for low  Down 71.0% from 1/26/00
3/2/02    30.23 buy signal
4/7/02    29.07 sell signal  down 9.0% from 3/3/02
9/28/02   18.02 same date for low.  But we are out.  Down 40.9%
4/5/03    22.03 buy signal

It took a loss of -51%, but avoided a loss of -71%.
Then took loss of -9% but avoided loss of -41%

The advice is, don't buy into a mania. Look at it from the pre-mania.
QQQ went up 2.3 times from inception (3/10/1999) to the high on 3/27/2000.

Do not buy tulip bulbs.

> fyi, CNN Fear and Greed Index has pretty much been at Extreme Fear this week. Last week it was on-and-off, with intraday Extreme Fear, until the last two days. As said, I follow the ROE_Cash screen, only because of familiarity with the stocks. I put limit on the gaps of the stocks in the screen, and sometimes the Volume Price bar, another support/resistance indicator. The stock tends to go down after purchase, but recovers again. Usually. :P

Posted that a month ago. The Index has since moved to Fear / Neutral, yet the markets have only recently gone down. This is the *same* behavior I noticed back in March: The index reaches Extreme Fear then the market soon corrects. So, today, with an 1.1% drop in the S&P and 1.8% drop in QQQ, my QQQ buy limit triggered. If you look at QQQ with the Volume Profile indicator, you'll notice it broke under a Volume Profile band a few days ago, and there's another wide band below it.

QQQ: https://x.com/ced1106/status/2001474275061174444

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