jetjocky:
I remember that thread…dipped my toes in the water and sold all my BRK in the Roth IRA at $472, and felt seller’s remorse.

As well you might.

Sat on my ass and watched as it climbed even further. I couldn’t take it any longer, and got itchy fingers. I sold a much more sizable lot, i.e., the entire BRK holding that was sitting in my non-taxable rollover IRA at a little over $540

Well that's more like it, you are still ahead on that one!

I have been doing an immense amount of studying up on buybacks, valuation methods, intrinsic value, Internal Rates of Return and my own conclusion is ALMOST,just get in and stay in. Having said that, I am in a bit now because I never got all the way out, but I have been looking at its current price and thinking it is not so low that it will never be lower than this again and while I may still decide to buy in at these prices, I do not feel pressed to decide immediately.

But one of the interesting things I finally figured out is that when BRK is doing buybacks which they do in a price sensitive way:
1) If you buy when Berk is buying back, you at least agree with the insiders that this is a good price to buy at
2) If you own when Berk is buying back, they are busily taking care of all the "market timing" for you (yes I know it is officially not market timing because it is done based on valuations).

While I think it is amazing to think you can outperform Berkshire by going longer and shorter using options tricks, actually getting the timing of that right is exactly the thing they are warning you against when they suggest not to bother. That Mungofitch manages to do it maybe as useful information in the same way that at least some of the times Evel Knievel manages to jump his motorcycle across the grand canyon, he actually makes it. Which is to say, this should not be featured heavily as a "how to" video in driver's ed classes for regular humans.

If you can live with 10% CAGR nominally (~7% REAL CAGR (after inflation)), you will very likely get that just holding. And think how much easier your life will be.

Now if I can just convince myself and make big move in and stay there until my kids inherit it from me... which would be so much easier for me to decide to do at 465 or so, to be arbitrary about it.

R:

PS same thing with GOOGL, which has been a 20% real return compounder for the last 22 years or so, but is about a year and a half ahead of its trend line of stock price right now. That's another one where I am foolishly waiting for the crash to buy in on trend instead of ahead of it, which could easily bite me on the ankles if the crash doesn't come soon enough. -R