No. of Recommendations: 3
We were able to hit them militarily? That's not going to do what you seem to think it will. None of these guys were unaware that they lacked the ability to deny the United States from doing what it wanted there.
No one doubts the US military's capability. What was doubted/questioned was the willingness/resolve of the various occupants of the White House to use it to its full capabilities. Countless American enemies fall into this thinking trap: the North Vietnamese, the Libyans, the Cubans, the Iraqis (twice), etc.
Hugo Chavez set all this up and used to tweak Bush43 all the time. Kept going under Obama. Handed over everything to Maduro, who invited the Chinese and Russians and Iranians and Hezbollah in. No response from Obama, Trump45 or Joe Biden. Just random bounties and the odd press release from the DOJ.
Welp. They learned that Trump47's calculus is a bit different.
None of these guys were unaware that they lacked the ability to deny the United States from doing what it wanted there.
Then they're a bunch of dupes who ought to be mad at the Chinese for selling them a bill of goods:
Venezuela has a number of China's JY-27A mobile radars, which Beijing has touted as top-of-the-line systems. It has said the radar can detect stealth assets, like the American F-22 and F-35, from over 150 miles away.
And now we're back to it:
Well, if he were to think that, then he would be a fool. They haven't changed categories or trend at all. They're still in the b) trending to a). Everything about the country points to a continued shift towards the Sino-Russian camp of the world, in opposition to the United States. Us seizing their head of state and expropriating their oil isn't going to change that...which is what you would need to happen for the arrow to shift direction.
This is YOUR opinion. Your idea of the facts on the ground there. Your assessment of the psychology of Venezuela's leaders. You don't have any other source that I don't have. Neither one of us knows for sure.
I've provided my reasons why I believe this assessment to be at best in the "we'll see" category.
No, it doesn't necessarily all add up. Sometimes the small moves don't add up to anything. A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step, but most single steps are just single steps - and don't lead to a long journey. If you increase China's cost of oil by 0.01%, that doesn't do anything - either alone or in combination with other stuff. It's too small to matter and will get dwarfed by other impacts. Just because we're in a Cold War with China doesn't mean that everything we do matters to that Cold War.
China's oil from Venezuela is now traveling under regularly-flagged ships under nations that can be convinced if need be to alter course or delay deliveries in the event something happens. Those ships are also navigating ocean great circle routes on known schedules thus making them easier to find. The US can charge 'fees' to China if it wants. So on and so forth.
Not nothing. But again, the above is my opinion. What's in the text above that is *your* opinion.
