No. of Recommendations: 12
How long has it taken historically for the NH-NL Bear Catcher to turn to bearish after a market peak. The following are the major 20% plus bear market peaks of the last fifty plus years. I show the peak date, the date when the NH-NL Bear Catcher turns bearish, and the market days between the two dates. In other words, how long has it taken historically at major market peaks for a warning to appear?
NH-NL Market
20% Peak Turns Bear Days
1/11/1973 1/18/1973 5
2/13/1980 3/5/1980 14
8/25/1987 9/22/1987 19
7/16/1990 7/19/1990 3
7/20/1998 7/22/1998 2
3/24/2000 4/3/2000 6
10/11/2007 10/18/2007 5
5/2/2011 5/24/2011 16
9/21/2018 10/2/2018 7
2/19/2020 2/25/2020 4
1/3/2022 11/18/2021 -30
2/7/2025 2/19/2025 -8
The average is 3.58 market days, but this is heavily influenced by the last two cases where the BC was bearish prior to the peak.
