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- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 1
Hopefully Buffett believes 345 ish will best 5 percent t bills over the next five to ten years?
No. of Recommendations: 10
Hopefully Buffett believes 345 ish will best 5 percent t bills over the next five to ten years?
I don't imagine anybody doubts that. But the purpose of the cash isn't the 5%, which won't beat inflation over time, it's a placeholder for the investment opportunity power.
So the real question is, will Berkshire shares purchased today at $345ish beat the best big investment opportunity that management can spot in the next 6-12-18 months?
I'd say "probably not", but the reason it's such a hard question is that nobody knows.
Add it's further complicated because it's not an all or nothing wager. The real question more how much should be wagered on each answer.
And yet further by how long it takes to get into a position, even (especially) if the pick is Berkshire shares.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 0
"" So the real question is, will Berkshire shares purchased today at $345ish beat the best big investment opportunity that management can spot in the next 6-12-18 months?"" I love your optimism, if buffett and munger are looking out 6-18 months, yahoo!! 3-5 billion is an odd lot for brk.
No. of Recommendations: 5
BRKB at $345/share. 2 cheapest guys on the planet paid as high as $367.21. Analysis over?
No. of Recommendations: 0
Good morning Cranky, does your broker take, buy at bottom orders? Sell at top orders too?
No. of Recommendations: 12
BRKB at $345/share. 2 cheapest guys on the planet paid as high as $367.21. Analysis over?
My analysis certainly doesn't call today's price a screaming buy.
And I am not a big fan of trying to do ontological exegisis on the actions of management...it's easy to read too much into things.
But I have to admit, your point has a certain compelling simplicity to it...
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 9
BRKB at $345/share. 2 cheapest guys on the planet paid as high as $367.21. Analysis over?
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My analysis certainly doesn't call today's price a screaming buy.
And I am not a big fan of trying to do ontological exegisis on the actions of management...it's easy to read too much into things.
I agree that it's a strong argument, but I also agree with Jim that other things may come into play. How about this: you're 92 and 99 years old and you're sitting on north of $150B in cash, selling $35B in equity positions ($353.4B at the end of Q2, $318.6 at the end of Q3), and NOT investing in long-term bonds (Q2 $23.3B, Q4 $23.4B), and you see your retailing and manufacturing numbers starting to come down, the railroads less busy, interest rates starting to bite, maybe a recession coming along soon, and this might be your final chance to do something big... OK, a minute spent on macro is a minute too much, right, but ...
Peter Lynch in a PBS interview: "I've always said if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 10 minutes." But maybe the first 3 minutes is OK?
DTB
No. of Recommendations: 4
selling $35B in equity positions ($353.4B at the end of Q2, $318.6 at the end of Q3)
I think they only sold $6.95 Billion in equities, while purchasing $1.7 Billion in equities, for net sales of about $5.25 Billion in the quarter. So most of your number above is from stocks like Apple going down during the quarter.
No. of Recommendations: 0
good point, thx
dtb
No. of Recommendations: 4
near triple digit ages, obscenely rich. W&C could certainly afford to actually dump a chunk of personal brk shares for some of that heady chaos zeitgeist.
or they don't buy into rightwing apocalyptic fear mongering on the u.s. w/ their own wealth. talk is cheap fox 'news' (well, except the dominion thing).
No. of Recommendations: 5
What does Fox News have to do with the subject at hand? Good grief.
No. of Recommendations: 6
fox news has a biz outlet that peddles not-so-good grief on the u.s. economy.
W&C invest nearly 100% on the u.s., and quite vocally.
make the leap.
No. of Recommendations: 10
talk is cheap fox 'news' (well, except the dominion thing).
Ok, so maybe it's a bit off topic.
But it's an epic burn!
Jim
