No. of Recommendations: 4
Perhaps a more specific response to rnam.
At the time Buffett bought much of his Chevron, it had a higher dividend, higher buybacks, and a stronger balance sheet compared to ExxonMobil. This was when the O&G industry was in turmoil from the price wars and the pandemic. Chevron is a strong, well managed, company. Who can fault the safer choice at the time?
And OXY remains an almost pure play on the Permian. While dividends and buybacks are still largely in the future, the long run in the Permian seems very solid. He knows the company, likes the CEO, likes her plans, and sees limited downside. Why not continue to invest at basically the same prices where you established your initial positions?
Perhaps the question is why didn't Buffett & team keep up with the progress XOM was making? And make use of its large and liquid cap to deploy billions of the huge cash hoard in addition?
I've sure wondered that myself.
My speculation is that Buffett doesn't want a larger position in the stock market in general at current price levels. And the higher interest rates on cash help reduce the potential opportunity cost of such. And, maybe in particular, he doesn't want a higher position in the cyclic O&G industry. Maybe the thinking is that O&G will also drop in price rapidly with the market prices if a major economic downturn happens. And the money tied up in buying XOM won't be available at the exact time he wants it to buy market bargains.
Has this cost him some potential profits? Yes. The XOM performance and plans have been well laid out in public. I hope he or his team are following them. But maybe possible future opportunities outweighs near term profits in his judgment.
I'd love to see him answer a question on the subject. But I know he won't, so why bother?
