No. of Recommendations: 14
But for the most part, the federal government is only one of many factors that affect the macroeconomy, and the policy choices of the President are themselves only a small part of the federal government.
Oh, you’re thinking too literally. Trump allows Ukraine to wither and die, obviously. It might not happen overnight because the EU will step up for a time, but they can’t support the effort single-handedly, and Ukraine is toast.
Seeing the pacifist tendencies of Trump, China will move on Taiwan. That will have gigantic macroeconomic effects on the entire world, because: chips. We saw what a minor shortage of those did to the auto industry during the pandemic, imagine if a significant majority of chip fabs end up under the control of Xi.
Tariffs are another where the President could deliver an overnight shock to the system. I realize that most of his talk is just so much bullshit, but putting tariffs on everything imported - or even most everything imported means that the prices of everything but rice skyrocket even on the shelves of WalMart.
Presidents have at least some sway over the Fed, by jawboning if nothing else. Trump could try - and might even succeed - in firing the head and replacing him with his own compliant stooge. I recall that Nixon pressuring Arthur Burns was the precursor to the inflation of the 70’s, which then got a kick in the pants with the OPEC embargo.
And no, I’m not talking about removing some or even most of the workers in chicken processing plants, potato harvest and the like. I don’t really expect that except a few raids for show (reminds me of prohibition) but still the *possibility* of such exists.
And don’t get me started on RFK taking over health care in the country. In spite of Trump’s promises, I wouldn’t expect that to happen. What could happen, however, if Republicans sweep, is an overnight dismantling of the ACA with attendant effects downstream. Don’t think they’d do it without something to replace it? Ha? They did exactly that last time, and only John McCain foiled the attempt.
As you can see by the examples above and many more, a bull in a china shop, even a well trained one, can wreak incredible damage. Frankly, I expect nothing less, especially given that he is term limited and has even less incentive to listen to his advisors, who in any case will be even more compliant than during his prior administration.
