No. of Recommendations: 4
Moderna issued a long update on their vaccine pipeline and business prospects today. The market has sold off the stock a bit, apparently on news that their flu vaccine is not headed for early approval.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-announces-c...Overall the news contained in the press release seems very positive to me (as would be expected from a press release I suppose, lol). Even the flu vax news was more positive than negative in my eyes. The flu vax of theirs that is furthest along, mRNA-1010, which is a quadrivalent vaccine that codes for the WHO-recommended flu strains, is in Phase 3 testing and results did not pass muster for early approval, but has been safe and shown improved protection against the more dangerous influenza-A strains, with mixed information on whether it achieves non-inferiority on the B strains. Moderna has already formulated an updated version of the 1010 vaccine which aims to improve response for the B strains and the Phase 3 trail will continue with that version later this month. They have in development numerous other flu vaccines and combination respiratory vaccines that include flu protection along with Covid and/or RSV protection.
Moderna has initiated new programs to develop vaccines for high profile diseases like enteric viruses like norovirus, and for Lyme disease, which is their first attempt to develop a vaccine for a bacterial disease.
Their Covid vaccine has been their bread and butter, and Covid continues to be a massive health threat world-wide. In addition to commercializing their updated booster earlier this year, Moderna has a next generation Covid vaccine that began Stage 3 human trials recently. The new vax will be refrigerator-stable instead of requiring ultra-low temperature storage. This could significantly expand their world-wide market for ongoing Covid vax sales.
Weekly Covid-related deaths reported by the NY Times have recently reached a new low for the pandemic, but still tally up to a shocking 1,600 per week the last two weeks, or an annual run rate of about 83,000 deaths, more than twice the estimated annual death rate caused by flu in the US.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/us/covid-...Regarding future business, the press release states:
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Commercial UpdatesModerna expects six major vaccine product launches in the next few years, each with significant addressable markets. The annual global endemic COVID-19 booster market alone is estimated by Moderna to be approximately $15 billon.
2027 Respiratory Franchise Financial FrameworkThe Company estimates respiratory product sales in 2027 to be in the range of $8 billion to $15 billion with corresponding Respiratory operating profit in the range of $4 billion to $9 billion. This framework is supported by $6 billion to $8 billion of additional research and development investments over the next few years. Of note, these estimates are for the respiratory vaccine business only and do not include forecasts for other Moderna products or investments.
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Moderna's current market cap is ~$59 billion.
