Post #578 by mungofitch on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks

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I suppose it will take more than one wicked down day to start triggering your major bottom detector?

FYI, it looks like the "minor bottom" detector will trigger today. It's pretty common by comparison. One month forward results are good on average.
As with the major bottom signal, it can trigger several days in a row, so it's best not to act until the first day that it does NOT trigger.

The "major bottom" signal won't trigger today, but it's quite a bit closer to the line than I expected.

There hasn't been a "major bottom" signal since 2022-09-29. That cluster formed a very good signal, within a couple of points of the lowest close a few days later.
SPY total return CAGR 18.1% in the 2.5 years since then, even after the recent dip. Would have been 24%/yr if you'd presciently sold at the recent top : )

Jim

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