No. of Recommendations: 3
You are right that the quote has become much cheaper than 2022, and similar to the 3/2020 levels, however with the large picture the valuation still can be a lot lower because of the lacklustre growth of the business as a whole.
KO's average PE from 2010-2015: 15
KO's average EPS from 2010-2015: $1.90 per share
PE today (Oct 2023): 21.9
EPS today (Oct 2023): $2.42 per share
Over the last decade, normalising, the earnings per share grew by 2.4/1.9 = 26%, or 2.3% per year which is about matching, or a little below, aggregate inflation.
If Coke were to continue growth at the same rate over the next decade it has over the past decade, then you might expect approximately to receive 3.5% dividend, no growth over inflation for the earnings, and the real capital gain confined to the change in the valuation multiple. This is akin to a bond paying a 3.5% real yield, which is better than than TIPS yield. But the multiple of 21.9 today is not particularly low compared to the past, so I would not bet on the multiple rising much from 21.9 and it could move lower towards again 15 over time, harming or even removing all of the yield.
If I knew for sure that Coke was to grow earnings only at the rate of inflation (which I don't) then I would not be interested in Coke until the dividend yield was over 8% or so, because I can find other investments with yields around 6% that are growing earnings very reliably above inflation such as BIP or BEP, with their total real return in the 10%+ vicinity.
- Manlobbi
