No. of Recommendations: 11
Many months ago in September I did a post talking about the predictive value of Berkshire stock Book/Share on the near-ish term (a few months to two years) price appreciation of BRK stock.
Sometime after that, someone posted a log-log plot of BRK.A stock price vs book/share from like 1965 through to 2022 or something like that. I spent some time (a lot) looking at that and basically recreating that analysis and going further.
My results are shown here:
https://kazart.blogspot.com/2026/04/berkshire-stoc...The lesson I draw from all of this is that the main story is:
1) BRK made you 25% a year from 1965 to about 1998
2) The purchase of Gen Re in 1998 marks a change so that since then, BRK has re3turned about 10% a year, and seems to still be doing that
3) The ratio of Price/Book of a share can serve as something of a guide to whether BRK is likely to go sideways for a while (when Price/Book > 1.5, say), or whether you are not likely to be able to buy it at its current low price in the future, if Price/Book is lower.
Anyway, it is mostly just a pretty picture with niced trend lines, not necessarily directly teaching you how to get rich quick.
Enjoy,
R:)
PS if someone could put a link to the original log-log plot post on Shrewdm a few months ago, I have spent hours looking for it and haven't found it ...
