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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: carolsharp ✸  😊 😞
Number: of 22351 
Subject: Re: Buffett, will he shock most of us ?
Date: 02/24/25 10:35 AM
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I usually define a fair price as "consistent with what has been the historical return from the average stock in the average year", around inflation + 6.5%. Buyers today should get that, though perhaps including a flattish spot in the shorter term.

You once said (refer mungofitch replies on Seth Klarman on CNBC):

Historically, since 1997:
a purchase on a day with P/peak-book under 1.55 (50% of all days) had about a 32% chance of not hitting my real return hurdle.
a purchase on a day with P/peak-book under 1.50 (42% of all days) had about a 20% chance of not hitting my real return hurdle.
a purchase on a day with P/peak-book under 1.45 (34% of all days) had about an 8% chance of not hitting my real return hurdle.

Today's P/peak-book is 1.65 ($497.50/$301), and so there's definitely a chance of not hitting inflation + 6.5% over the next seven years.

Right?

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This community has written 21,861 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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