Post #11894 by carolsharp on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤

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I usually define a fair price as "consistent with what has been the historical return from the average stock in the average year", around inflation + 6.5%. Buyers today should get that, though perhaps including a flattish spot in the shorter term.

You once said (refer https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=459786738):

Historically, since 1997:
a purchase on a day with P/peak-book under 1.55 (50% of all days) had about a 32% chance of not hitting my real return hurdle.
a purchase on a day with P/peak-book under 1.50 (42% of all days) had about a 20% chance of not hitting my real return hurdle.
a purchase on a day with P/peak-book under 1.45 (34% of all days) had about an 8% chance of not hitting my real return hurdle.

Today's P/peak-book is 1.65 ($497.50/$301), and so there's definitely a chance of not hitting inflation + 6.5% over the next seven years.

Right?

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