No. of Recommendations: 7
"For example, if I had cash in Apple today I wouldn't feel bad moving that into Alphabet today. (based on my own assessment of relative attractiveness--others may disagree)"
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Jim, I'm curious about your thesis for Alphabet. I own the stock but I've been a bit concerned that Valueline has dropped their estimated EPS for the firm.
I wouldn't put too much weight on changes to short term changes in the Value Line projections.
Nor all that much in their projections in general : )
Mostly, it's a "coffee can" play. I bought some at a reasonable valuation, with the intent of forgetting about it and holding onto it for a long time.
I think their business is extremely formidable: indispensable, amazingly profitable, and still growing.
I don't think regulatory attacks or "disruptive" new technology will faze them materially.
If you gave me a cheque for (say) $500 billion, could I set up a company in competition, undercut them a bit and take away 1/3 of their profits?
My guess is "nope".
As for financial projections, I keep it simple.
Valuation levels are not obviously cheap of course, but you're buying very high quality goods.
Whatever you think the highest future multiple a firm might reasonably justify is, this one deserves it.
I imagine revenue per share will rise for a very long time to come, at rates considerably higher than the valuation multiples will need to fall from here to stay justified.
Net profit margins are forecast to expand, but 20% is fine for me.
All that being said, I know myself: coffee-canning isn't my usual thing.
If I see a new great opportunity while GOOGL is richly valued, I'll probably lighten up to seize the new one.
But I should probably just "set it and forget it".
Jim
