No. of Recommendations: 5
Inferences:
- Its not common to have everything go berserk. I tried to mark those periods with the hand-drawn arrows
- While it has happened at major lows - but really seems to be event/dislocation driven. ie markets can fall further. or really non-event for equities ( 1993-94 Bond crisis)
Would love to hear your thoughts!The image is a bit hard to parse, but it seems to be not bad at all
My suggestion: use this as an enhancement to a breadth based model.
Start by looking mainly for extremes in bad breadth (advance-decline or newhigh-newlow for NYSE or Nasdaq). Then use these things, only at their great extremes, to hopefully discern between the breadth extremes that are bad and the ones that are really bottoms. The reasoning: all kinds of bad days will have lots of stocks going down, but if the usual havens like bonds and gold are moving the wrong way then it's a REAL capitulation liquidation. That's just a speculation, I have no idea if it will work!
If you don't have a history of breadth data, you can get a full history of breadth stuff from Pinnacle for $39. See B1, B2, B3.
https://pinnacledata2.com/idx.htmlIt's only the update service that costs meaningful money, but you can try to keep it up to date with sites like these
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stockshttps://www.barchart.com/stocks/highs-lows/summaryI think one of those matches the source that Pinnacle uses (Dow Jones news for most things), but I can't remember which
Jim
