Post #2944 by rayvt on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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Fisher Investments 2025 forecast.

S&P500 total return YTD is almost 28%. Last year's (2023) total return was 22.3%. That's about 55% return in 2 years.

I have been mulling over whether to take my 2024 gain and protect it by moving it to T-bills.
This just came across my desk:

http://click.email.fisherinvestments.com/?qs=c9a0a...

"Right now we see three similarly likely 2025 market outcomes, no others and no valid basis to rank them. "There is about a 30% probability stocks finish up with another 20%-plus return. There is also about a 30% probability they finish down a little, maybe -7% or so. And finally, similar chances of low single digit gains, like 4%. "A basic rule of successful investing is: IF YOU DON’T HAVE A GOOD REASON TO BE BEARISH, YOU SHOULD BE BULLISH. Why? Because stocks rise two-thirds of the time … that is “2-1” in frequency of days, months and years in history."

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