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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: tecmo ⎊  😊 😞
Number: of 15056 
Subject: Re: Spy down another 4 percent,
Date: 04/07/2025 5:25 PM
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With now -20% in the S&P after 1 month whatīs your personal opinion in light of that: Do you think itīs different this time? Or that it will go for that MANY more weeks to come effectively sideways? Or else?

Here is a scenario

1. Market drops 15-20% (done)
2. Market bounces back 5% - 10%
3. Market slowly slides down another 20% (with many ups and downs over a 2 year period)


In terms of SP-500

Top    : 6,100
Stage 1: 4,880
Stage 2: 5,300
Stage 3: 4,200

If you can forecast a true bear, Stage 2 is an excellent time to sell...

BTW: A "deep" bear would be 3,700 or so; which I would put in the 30% likely scenario...

tecmo
...

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