Post #71295 by Lambo on the US Policy board

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https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/making-america-...

A better indication of how the economy is doing is job gains over the past year, shown at the top of this post (dashed green line). This is a lot less noisy than the monthly number, and it also happens to cover the first year of Trump 47. Since January 2025 the economy is estimated to have added 359,000 jobs, down almost 900,000 from job growth the previous year. This indicates that the job market is very close to complete stagnation. Furthermore, the only sectors that saw large job growth were health care and social assistance (solid blue line). Employment elsewhere declined. Manufacturing employment, notably, fell. So Trump’s economy is not exactly delivering the “manly jobs” that he promised.

The graph he referring to is in the link.

Now, Trump officials have been vigorously spinning weak job growth on their boss’s watch. What’s interesting is the excuse for near-stagnation offered by both Kevin Hassett, the chair of the National Economic Council, and Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade czar: Job growth has stalled because of mass deportations.

Wait, what?

Since we’re talking about Trump appointees, some of what these officials said involved flat-out lying. Navarro, in particular, declared that “we’re deporting millions of illegals out of our job market” — ICE has “only” arrested around 393,000 people. He also disparaged strong job growth during the Biden years, saying

"[A]ll of the jobs we were creating in Biden years were going to illegals. Americans were going to the unemployment lines."

There aren’t good data on how many jobs are going to illegal immigrants, but we do know that unemployment among native-born Americans fell under Biden but rose last year:

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There aren’t good data on how many jobs are going to illegal immigrants, but we do know that unemployment among native-born Americans fell under Biden but rose last year:

One of his graphs in an earlier post showed that white collar jobs weren't doing very well. I thought if that happened it would reverberate through the job market. That's where the money is.

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