Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 7
Top 5's?
Goog sub c150? <20PE
Meta sub c420? <20PE
Brk sub c390? <1.3x book
Msft sub c250? <20PE
KO sub c50 <20PE
Ideas?
No. of Recommendations: 19
I estimate the fair value (well, historically average valuation level) for QQQE is about $76 these days, give or take. The Nasdaq 100, but equally weighted, 1% each.
Getting that at a discount for a long hold would probably do well. Say, the 60s or below.
Funds aren't for everybody, but if I had to own one and the only concerns were risk (for a fund, that's company specific exposure) and likely long run return, that would be my suggestion.
The disadvantage is that it probably includes one or more firms you might not like to be an owner of, for whatever reason.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 1
Hi Jim,
Do you have any suggestions for foreign stock ETFs traded in US? I have a small position in AVDV - Atlantis small-cap value ETF. I am looking to diversify away from US large cap stocks which is over 90% of my portfolio.
Thanks.
No. of Recommendations: 1
A PE of 20 for QQQE would be $58 and QQQ would be $218
QQQE is currently trading on a 27PE and QQQ 40PE. One to keep an eye on.
No. of Recommendations: 14
Do you have any suggestions for foreign stock ETFs traded in US?
Nope, sorry. In general I am not a fan of funds. Almost all of them are cap weighted, and I'm not a fan of that.
The MSCI global ex-US equal weight index looks not too bad, but it seems to be UCITS only, no US ETFs.
It can be worth looking for individual companies. Skip a few industries that have notoriously poor economics (no control of pricing like commodities, or always risky like financials), and look for things with a high 5-year average ROE and no excessive debt. The free FT.com global equity screener is great. A couple of weekends is enough to build a portfolio that's way better than any cap weight fund.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 0
A PE of 20 for QQQE would be $58 and QQQ would be $218
I have been trying for some time to get an idea of what valuations were typical for QQQE in the past.
Does anyone happen to know a free source for the PE of QQQE - preferably as a chart?
No. of Recommendations: 3
I added to these positions this week:
East West Bancorp - a regional bank serving Chinese and other Asian Americans, has a banking license in China, forward PE below 9.
Devon Energy - independent oil and gas exploration company with free cash flow yield of over 15%, forward PE below 7.
Neither are exposed directly to tariffs but could be hit by prolonged recession, but I believed that is already priced in. Should be good investments on a 3-5 year horizon.
Others on my list are UPS and Sysco. Sysco, is a food distributor and would make a great acquisition for Berkshire to add to McLane.
No. of Recommendations: 1
i put a toe into BHP. lawsuit resolution still to come, but div is 6% ...P/E 10 . trading almost at 52 week low...
No. of Recommendations: 11
QQQE is currently trading on a 27PE and QQQ 40PE. One to keep an eye on.
A couple of comments...
QQQ can't really be valued or predicted by mere humans, as it is primarily a wager on a tiny number of huge firms, though not in proportion to their market caps. It is only a basis for speculation, nothing sensible. (if you knew those firms well enough to value them, you have no need of a fund). So it's not really fruitful to try to compare the two.
The typical value level I mentioned for QQQE is based on a cyclical adjustment of trend earnings, not current P/E. It's also based on the long run average multiple of the trend earnings level, which is reasonably high...but this group as a whole has had remarkable real earnings growth over time, and at a remarkably steady rate. There are decent reasons to doubt that that will last and can be extrapolated (a free lunch tends not to last) but (a) so far so good over the last 30 years, and (b) even if it ends, but it's probably no worse than a set of 100 dartboard picks which is itself almost certain to beat a broad cap weight index.
So be of good cheer : )
Biggest risk?
US corporate net margins are very high compared to history. For some rather not obvious but incontrovertible macroeconomic reasons this is the flip side of huge government deficits. If the folks in charge manage to reduce the deficit, it will not actually be good for US corporate profits, except in the very long term sense of avoiding catastrophe.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 7
In the same vein as BHP, there are also Rio Tinto and Vale.
Vale has higher grade iron ore, but transportation to China is a bit higher cost.
I've always figured that, sooner or latewr, someone is going to make something out of stuff that comes out of the ground.
Disclosure: I currently own BHP and RIO, and have owned Vale in the past (and am keeping an eye on them now)
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 6
Even if things continue to slide largely in the same direction, the degree of relative undervaluation and real risk (permanent loss of capital) seem likely to be moving targets, perhaps to a greater degree than in the past. So I'm looking at small-ish baskets of things with mostly good economics, along with some cyclicals. I'd like to use my U.S. dollars to buy some companies in jurisdictions with lower country risk, but I've got some catching up to do on the research front. So, for now:
Insurers and insurance brokers: MKL, WTM, FFH, CB, AJG, WTW (getting taken out by AON), BRO
Exchanges, data services, and brokers: EFX, SPGI, NDAQ, ICE, LSEG.L., 0388.HK, IBKR
Wines and spirits: DEO, STZ, RI.PA, BF/B, LVMH
They ain't making any more of it: HHH, MLP, JOE, LB, LEN, DHI, GBRK (**wait for real pessimism with this batch**)
One man's EuroTrash is another's EuroTreasure: EVO.ST, EXOR.AS, DHL -- any suggestions?
India: FIH-U.TO, HDB -- would love to find a few more
Commodity cycle, ag and chem: ADM, DVN, DOW, NTR, OLN
High-quality smaller U.S. businesses: FAST, FERG, TSCO, JHX, IMKTA, TREX
Sogo Shosha: Itochu, Marubeni, Matsui, Marubeni (and some *very* thinly traded Japanese small caps)
China/Tech: GOOGL, BABA, TenCent...
No. of Recommendations: 1
EPD HERE
CNQ HERE
No. of Recommendations: 2
I am thinking silver (SLV).
1. Gold has been going up
2. Gold/silver ratio at 100. Historically this predicts higher returns for silver
3. Silver has some industrial use unlike gold
4. Silver is not mined solely.. it’s usually a bi-products of other mines, and mines are capital intensive.
Con:
1.More and more Silver is recycled
2.Jewelry uses of silver, mainly from india, can decrease
3.people are find alternative materials to replace silver for industrial use
No. of Recommendations: 2
I estimate the fair value (well, historically average valuation level) for QQQE is about $76 these days, give or take. The Nasdaq 100, but equally weighted, 1% each.
Getting that at a discount for a long hold would probably do well. Say, the 60s or below. Jim. I have started DCA-ing into QQQE. Based on above fair value estimate of 76 by Jim, we seem to be getting into the zone of reasonableness. Today's low was 79.82. For added context, it's YTD down 10%, down about 18% from 52 week high and 22% down (in real terms) from its 2022 high. The "2022 high" which was actually achieved on 11/16/21 was 90.21 in nominal terms and 103.48 in today's dollars.
https://www.direxion.com/product/nasdaq-100-equal-...
