No. of Recommendations: 11
What’s typical behavior for liquor stocks during recessions? Do they tend to keep their value due to increased sales to people down on their luck, or do they react like cosmetic makeup sales, increasing as a treat to oneself during hard times? Historically they were considered very defensive. Earnings chugged along. Obviously everything sells off briefly during a stock market panic, but they generally held up better than most things. Brown-Forman was trading around $15 (say, 13.50 - 16.50) in the two years before the credit crunch, and was back there by around end '09 after a brief dip into the $10-11.25 range.
The pandemic was an exception for most alcohol groups. People stayed at home and drank a lot, among other things, so they had a little bubble then a hangover from the bubble. The Peloton effect. So you have to ignore earnings and price levels during the pandemic recovery.
I mentioned the big four international drinks firms a while back on the non-US stocks board, though it could just have easily been Falling Knives. (Diageo, Campari, Pernod-Ricard, and Remy Martin)
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=448539467&wholeThre...They're all currently still 37% - 57% off their 52 week highs. (well, 52 weeks ending at the date of that post)
Jim
