No. of Recommendations: 3
As you say, no one has changed their goals, so far as I can tell. So it's going to flare up again, barring some major changes in attitudes.
Goals haven't changed, but capabilities have. Hamas was weakened by Israel's direct attacks, to be sure. But they were also weakened by home much Iran has been diminished, both from Israel's actions and the fall of Assad in Syria. The entire regional power dynamic has been upended. At the start of the war, Iran was a strong regional hegemon with strong clients that was a threat to the entire area; now they are much more enfeebled.
That's what created the opening for this. Trump has essentially offered the Sunni nations in the region a completely reworked security proposition. A tight alliance with the U.S., in close cooperation with Israel, and everyone gets to keep their existing political situations in place the way they want to - but Hamas has to go. Those nations got on board, even nations that have been traditionally more solicitous to the Palestinian cause and Hamas specifically (like Qatar). They're willing to throw Hamas under the bus and throw their weight behind the PA or some successor entity - or even foreign occupation of Gaza - in order to get that deal done.
That's a deal those nations can get from Trump but couldn't get from any other American President. Trump is singularly, utterly, and completely uninterested in the fact that these are authoritarian repressive states with serious human rights issues. He doesn't care about any of the things that diplomats or other government leaders or NGO's typically care about. He wants his deal, he wants the area to be open for business, and he wants a piece of the business. They can cement a broader version of the Abraham Accords and lock in with the U.S. and Israel without having to implement any unwanted domestic changes.
That's why you see the Qatari installation in Idaho. They're cutting their deal with Trump, and they're realists. They know that we change our political leaders. Trump's going to let these countries get some facts on the ground to cement these relationships. Stuff that's better than treaties in a world that trades less on legal niceties and more on raw power and those facts on the ground, and where treaties would need to have all that annoying human rights stuff in them to get through our Senate. Trump's going to embrace all those bloodstained, repressive authoritarian leaders so hard that that they will be assured that it will reverberate after he's gone from office.
That's the deal - a security arrangement with the U.S. and (eventually) Israel that's worth more than the domestic indigestion that comes from picking a side in the Hamas/PA struggle and giving Israel something they want against the Palestinians. Hamas loses all support from everyone (except Iran), they come out publicly against them and in support of foreign occupation of Gaza...but they get to be America's best buddies for the next 3.2 years, notwithstanding their repressive political systems that had made it difficult in the past for them to have that overt relationship.
