cnbc.com - Microsoft msft q4 earnings report

Solid report with Intelligent Cloud revenue now over $100B as the headline.

              Model         Forecast       Actual
EPS           $4.27         $4.24          $4.74*
Revenue       $89.32        $87.62         $90.01

*Actual EPS was $4.81 but that includes $3.2B from Anthropic investment

Looking at TTM values

EPS      : $17.28 / share     
Revenue  : $331.84B

(these exclude Anthropic equity)

Stock is trading at around $400 on the news, which implies a PE of 23x; which is well below the recent levels where it was over 30x. P/S is around 9x; which is also on the low end.

A simple model I use suggests EPS of around $20.00 and Revenue of $387B in the next 4 quarters and a valuation range of 26xEPS and 10xPS ; or roughly $525 - $550 / share give or take. I have been a net buyer this year with adds at $389, $402, $399, $411, $426 and $482 (was a bit early to pull on that in hindsight). My overall costs basis is in the low $40s however.

My overall sentiment remains bullish, but no need to be adding any more given the relative size of this in my portfolio is large as it is.

tecmo
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