I was doing a little lazy work today and concluded that if the 1.67 P/BV on ycharts is correct for today -- and if we should hover around 1.4-1.5x, we're about 10% to 20% "pricey" (1.67 / 1.4 = 1.19 => 19% pricey). Now I could get cute and say that we're a little cash heavy now so maybe that P / BV should be a touch lower, but whatever.

On the other hand, I'm seeing a 28 x P/E for the S&P500. If the long-term P/E should be closer to 20 (or.... 15!!), we'd be at least 40% pricey. I think the fine folks at Semper Augustus were more accurately doing my math but had a similar conclusion.

Once I get this far in my calcs, I start worrying whether selling a bit of Berk or S&P at these levels (or even selling a bit of S&P and buying some Berk) starts to fall into the category of "market timing" -- as one would reasonably expect some type of return-to-normalcy in the "less-than-3" year period. That, however, may be my own anxieties about anything too "trade-y" esque.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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