2026: Lots of wildly optimistic projections, I'll believe 'em when I see 'em.

I view forward earnings estimates as a reasonable indicator of what the S&P 500 is capable of earning. Of course, it’s possible those numbers won’t fully materialize in 2026. Nevertheless, they still represent a solid indicator for where index-level earnings are likely headed in the coming years. A 300+ EPS baseline will soon become the new normal for the S&P 500 annual earnings.

What would these S&P earnings look like without the trillion dollar deficits?

Nobody knows exactly how the debt and deficit situation will ultimately resolve. At some point, a significant restructuring seems inevitable, hopefully a peaceful one. Wealth redistribution in various forms will likely occur, and life will go on. Seems to me, as individuals, the best we can do is keep a substantial portion of our wealth in productive assets to keep up with inflation.

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

What does above mean as a practical matter? You can't realistically completely jump in and out of stocks based on your personal view of valuation. At best you can vary equity exposure at the margin, which is my interpretation of the quote.