No. of Recommendations: 24
I think the bloom is off the rose for EVs. This cold snap likely put the next-to-last nail in the coffin. Here's a 2 minute news clip from Chicago, EV owners saying 2 hours to charge up after waiting 2 hours in line. EVs dying while in line, having to push the dead dead dead car up to the charger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmxg-pFzMG8
After the news about Hertz dumping their 20,000 EVs because they just didn't work out.The glass is two thirds full: Hertz may have dumped a third of its EV fleet, because they say they got ahead of demand, but they kept 2/3.
Dumping on EVs is the 'news of the day', but I think we should take it with a grain of salt. EV sales continue to be vigorous. Kelley Blue Book anticipates they will be up to 1.2 million cars in 2023 in the USA:
1,189,051 new electric vehicles (EVs) were put into service as the slow shift to an electrified future continued unabated. In 2023, the EV share of the total U.S. vehicle market was 7.6%, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. That is up from 5.9% in 2022. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q4-2023...And Q4 was better than the 2023 average, for both volume and market share, with 317,168 and 8.1%, respectively. The expect 10% market share next year.
It's true that growth is slowing: 2023 sales were up 'only' 40% year over year, where we previously had growth rates like 50% or 60%. But 40% annual growth is nothing to sniff at: it just means EV sales double every 2 years. If rates stay at 40% for 10 years, we would go from 10% in 2024 to over 100% in 2034. OK, maybe that's not going to happen, but you get my point.
In the rest of the world, EVs are doing even better - market share 16%, up from 13% in 2022.
https://www.ev-volumes.com/ China and Europe are both at around 25% now. And there is a flood of new EVs coming out from almost all automakers. That may not be good for automakers' profits, but it is good for consumers and for Pilot's charging stations. And wait to see what will happen when we finally get some cheap EVs like what BYD and other Chinese makers are producing. 40% growth rates might turn out to be too low - imagine the world market for a car that is actually cheaper than gas cars, not just to operate but to purchase - I think we'll have lots of them soon.
Bottom line: gas prices are down, and it's winter in the Northern hemisphere, and cold weather makes us all worry about having an EV, but I think it's mostly just a bad news cycle. Better to watch the sales numbers, not the news, and especially not on social media, where if you read anything pessimistic about EVs you'll just get flooded with more of it.
dtb
