Post #178 by Bluehorseshoe on the Macroeconomic Trends and Risks board

Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks

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There have been (and will be in the future) long periods of low returns in the stock market - these typically (always?) start from a period of high valuation and end with a period of low valuation (by definition?).

Along these same lines, I have been revisiting how long the market tends to trade under peak price and I found the following quite interesting. Today, December 15th, I believe will mark 490 days since the S&P500 closed at its all time peak of 4796 on January 3, 2022. I only find five stretches longer than that since 1955.

09/23/1958: 538 days peak to peak
03/03/1972: 819 days
07/16/1980: 1897 days
05/29/2007: 1802 days
03/27/2013: 1375 days

Maybe we see a new peak before year end. Maybe we don’t. I don’t find it comforting that current conditions share any similarity to the time frames above. I remember the most recent two very vividly.

Jeff

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