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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: Lapsody 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 48481 
Subject: Re: Ok IDF whoop butt
Date: 10/08/2023 11:36 PM
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The Obama agreement that Trump pulled out of was not a Senate ratified treaty. Why, because Obama did not submit it. Why was that, because the votes ere not there to ratify.

The treaty did not prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons as some like you apparently believe. It did put a limit on the degree of Uranium enrichment that could occur and only did that for ten years.


Notice I called it an agreement, not a treaty. Here is what I think:

"The P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany) wanted to unwind Iran's nuclear program to the point that if Tehran decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would take at least one year, giving world powers time to respond. Heading into the JCPOA negotiations, U.S. intelligence officials estimated that, in the absence of an agreement, Iran could produce enough nuclear material for a weapon in a few months."

The estimate with the agreement was 15 years, not 10 Mike. So we had a 6 nation agreement on one side, Iran was in compliance - twice certified by Trump's admin. I remember at the time because there was talk of using bunker busters to get to Iran's processing centrifuges. Remember when we put a virus into their centrifuge computer software?

Still, Trump's withdrawing and tightening the screws puts the kibosh to an agreement with 6 countries that opened up Iran for inspections and effectively delayed development of a bomb for 15 years. A worthy goal considering how tense it was. Easing away from a crisis is a good thing. Yes, Mike, there are times we'll let you go in with your battle axe and have at it, but don't we both agree that avoiding war is good as long as you don't give away the store?

The tech for the bomb is easy as long as you don't execute your scientists for making mistakes. But the uranium enrichment turns out to be difficult (I wouldn't have thought this). So a delay of 15 years puts us almost halfway into a completely new generation of people running Iran.

We are the ones who made it so nukes virtually guarantee no invasion, so countries like N Korea want them. I mean Pakistan next door has nukes. India has nukes. So pulling out was a huge mistake and it looks like it was done by Trump just to negate an Obama accomplishment - pettiness. Our international security run by - pettiness.

Top all this off as the Iran's cheating on the treaty. And yes, I was not in favor of the agreement when Obama made it and was glad that Trump pulled us out.

But Iran wasn't cheating until we pulled out and tightened the screws, so you and Trump caused the cheating.

What Iran understands and respects is power and the will to use it such as when Trump took out Qasem Soleimani.

Like anyone else, Iran needs to eat, so it will play ball for that. A certain amount of cheating is to be expected, and ignored or dealt with. Well, OK, you are in favor of Iran having nukes in a year, rather than 15 years from now Got it. Not a wise choice, but it does suit your bluster.
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