We will know if it happen because the Chinese would have to bombard Taiwanese defense installations, or those car carriers will barely make it within sight of the shore. Aerial bombardment will be when we know for certain.

I’m thinking the siege, not often used in modern warfare, might be the one for this. Island nation, easy to cut off from the outside world, produces only 30% of what it needs to feed its people, and has no natural energy sources to speak of.

I’m not sure how much we might deliver by air, but surely it would be a small fraction of what is needed. A marine siege would cut off the really big deliveries of foodstuffs and oil, and after that, well, who knows? I haven no idea how long a siege like this would have to last before capitulation, and perhaps in the modern era it’s a tactic that would no longer work, but it comes to mind as one that would be pretty easy to effectuate, could be relatively bloodless (absent the US Navy actually getting into a shooting war 8,000 miles from home), and could lead to a takeover without damaging much of the valuable export infrastructure, chip factories, etc. which would be the ultimate prize.

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