Post #20924 by mungofitch on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)

Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (12)

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!

No. of Recommendations: 22

Not too impressive - it sounds like a young fella with a new ChatGPT subscription who only recently discovered that wow! there are secular bear markets. But doesn't know the difference between a simple average of yearly returns and a CAGR (Exhibit 4). He laments the awful risk of someone seeing a long secular bear market during their accumulation years, citing as evidence the return trajectory of an all-equity index, not noticing that a long bear during your accumulation years would be fantastic, as you'd be buying regularly at low valuation levels. ("3% of 20-year periods delivered negative real returns...outcomes experienced by real investors whose accumulation phases coincided with unfavorable starting points.")

Average broad market forward returns are pretty low starting from unusually high market valuation levels. That's the gist of it: not wrong, but not surprising.

Jim

Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!

Print the post

Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (12)

Prev | Next

Announcements

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

A community forum supporting civilized, and highly helpful, self-educating investors that come together for Shrewdness and merry spirits. These message boards closely follow the look and feel of the old message boards at boards.fool.com prior to the boards redirected to discussion.fool.com. Shrewd'm is not affiliated with the comprehensive and excellent investment website, The Motley Fool (TMF), in any way. The Shrewd commmunity here has owed, and continues to owe, gratitude to The Motley Fool for nurturing a culture of jovial irreverence towards Wall St, and that tradition will continue here.