Full self-driving is still some time off, but it seems likely that Tesla will get there first, there too, and if and when they do, that will have a huge impact on their sales.

I think that's probably wrong. But it depends on how you define full self-driving.

I think that both Cruise and Waymo will get to widely deployed Level 4 full self-driving long before Tesla does. They're already doing so now, in very limited fashion. However, it will be TaaS, carefully monitored, and geofenced. They'll get the autonomous robo-taxis to market years before the 'Tesla Network' could ever come online - which will blow open the door for consumer sales of Level 4 vehicles, which most people will (rightly) regard as self-driving.

Tesla's aiming for Level 5 or bust. They might be the first to Level 5 - but I think that's years away. By the time they get there, there will be self-driving robotaxis available in a fairly large number of U.S. metros, which will make it difficult for Tesla to get permission to just 'turn on' a Level 5 system in a million cars without any regulator-reviewed test mileage.

Albaby