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Author: OrmontUS 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 1030 
Subject: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/02/2023 8:09 AM
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/02/business/bank-o...

Bank of England Raises Rates to 4 Percent, Its 10th Straight Increase
The bank raised rates by half a point to the highest since 2008, but softened its tone on future rate increases.

Maybe BREXIT wasn't such a great idea after all

Jeff
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Author: Goofyhoofy 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 1030 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/03/2023 9:00 AM
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Maybe BREXIT wasn't such a great idea after all

Fareed Zaharia has some thoughts:

There's a remedy for Britain's problems: Rejoin the E.U.

' This week marked the third anniversary of Brexit, and it coincided with a grim verdict from the International Monetary Fund: This year, the British economy will do worse than all of the world's major economies ' including Russia. The 2016 vote to leave the European Union marked the symbolic start of the wave of populism that has been coursing through much of the Western world ever since. It was a conscious choice by a major country to have poorer economic relations with its largest market.

(In 2021, the European Union took in around 42 percent of British exports.) British voters thus put nationalism and politics above economics.
On virtually every measure, from business investment to exports to employment, Britain is falling behind its peers. Think tank scholar John Springford put it simply: 'If you impose barriers to trade, investment and migration with your biggest trading partner (EU), then you're going to have quite a big hit to trade volumes, and to investment and to GDP.' '
https://wapo.st/3HUbS2C

With luck this article is 'gifted', meaning you should be able to access the full article with the link.
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Author: Said   😊 😞
Number: of 1030 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/03/2023 3:30 PM
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Maybe BREXIT wasn't such a great idea after all

Depends on the goals of the pro Brexit voters and what they are willing to sacrifice for it. Maybe their goal is Freedom (from Brussels) and they are willing to pay the price for it.
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Author: ges 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 1030 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/03/2023 6:01 PM
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they are willing to pay the price for it.

Maybe...but I don't think so. I don't think most of those who voted to exit realized what the ramifications were. I'll bet now many regret it. Time will tell.
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Author: Goofyhoofy 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 1030 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/03/2023 7:02 PM
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The slide in support for it is quite telling.

' Since September 2021 (the last time the country was equally divided on the issue) there's been a sharp jump in the number of UK residents who say they'd rather be a member of the EU. About 58% of those polled now say the UK should remain in the bloc. '
https://qz.com/brexit-polls-support-popularity-eu-...

I'm not sure what kind of freeeeedom they thought they were going to get, but it isn't much of anything about 'new jobs' or 'better economy', that's for sure.

Fareed Zaharia in WaPo:

' This week marked the third anniversary of Brexit, and it coincided with a grim verdict from the International Monetary Fund: This year, the British economy will do worse than all of the world's major economies ' including Russia. The 2016 vote to leave the European Union marked the symbolic start of the wave of populism that has been coursing through much of the Western world ever since. It was a conscious choice by a major country to have poorer economic relations with its largest market. '
Everywhere you look, Britain is feeling the pinch, from a shortage of workers to small companies struggling to send their goods into Europe to reduced traffic on the Eurostar train between Britain and Europe. Bloomberg Economics estimates that British GDP would be 4 percent higher had it stayed in the Europe.'

Great Britain is on the verge of becoming 'Little England', another small country with an outsized past.
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Author: BenSolar   😊 😞
Number: of 1030 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/04/2023 1:05 PM
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I'm not sure what kind of freeeeedom they thought they were going to get, but it isn't much of anything about 'new jobs' or 'better economy', that's for sure.

My impression is that they were looking for the freedom to limit immigration and to avoid environmental rules imposed by the EU. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. People concerned with these issues might have believed Brexit would prevent immigrants from taking jobs from natives, thus boosting native employment, and they might have believed environmental rules were such a drag on the British economy that avoiding them would be a bigger boost than the reduction in free trade.

They overlooked or discounted the numerous very real freedoms that they would be giving up with Brexit: freedom of personal movement to and from Europe with ease and rapidity, freedom to easily buy and sell goods to and from Europe, economic freedom of their banks/trading houses to closely integrate with European markets: a freedom crucial to maintaining their prior status as the preeminent financial center in Europe.

But, they for sure didn't like being told they had to accept emigrant workers, and now they don't have to.
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Author: Goofyhoofy 🐝 HONORARY
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Number: of 1030 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/04/2023 6:26 PM
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and now they don't have to.

And with their economy sliding downhill, they also don't need to.
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Author: luxmain   😊 😞
Number: of 48489 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/05/2023 6:55 AM
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> My impression is that they were looking for the freedom to limit immigration

The UK already had the ability to limit immigration as an EU member.

In fact, this is what most other EU countries chose to do but the UK purposefully chose NOT to do.

1) https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul...

"But the biggest deception is this: we could easily have taken back control of our borders already under European Parliament and Council Directive 2004/38/EC, which allows EU member states to repatriate EU nationals after three months if they have not found a job or do not have the means to support themselves."

2) https://www.cer.org.uk/sites/default/files/publica...

When the EU expanded, "The UK... was one of just three EU countries not to impose transitional restrictions on migrants from the member-states that joined in that year (the so-called A8)."

3) https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/questionable-imm...

"By respecting all EU rules, net immigration of non-British citizens to the UK could have been cut by a stunning 82% in 2004-11 and also rather significantly since then. It was a UK decision not to control immigration."

(I recommend reading that whole post at the bruegel URL)

All of which has been known for many, many years.

----------

If anything, the UK has lost some control of immigration because it no longer has the ability to share any surge of refugees to EU countries within EU refugee management schemes.

----------

The idea that Brexit had anything whatsoever to do with immigration or economics is a sad joke. Under both Labour and the Conservatives the UK has had *extremely* pro-immigration policies by its own choice. The UK has been absurdly pro-immigration by the standards of any EU country for at least 20 years until today.

Brexit was, is, and has always been about managing internal party conflict within the Conservative party. It's a political infight among a few hundred MPs that spilled out catastrophically onto the country. David Cameron used a public vote to try and bring (approximately) 1/3 of his MPs into line on his viewpoint and solidify his control over his party. It catastrophically failed, and when it became clear what he'd achieved with his hubris, he immediately ran away from his role as PM and dumped the problem he had created onto everyone else to solve. He did not foresee that it was even possible the public might 'vote the most ridiculous way', and thus there was no plan whatsoever for what Brexit actually meant, were it voted for. Realising this opportunity, the 1/3 of anti-EU MPs proceeded to define the meaning of 'Leave' *after* the vote took place, and used 'delivering the result is about upholding democracy!' as a wedge issue to force pro-EU Conservatives out of the party.

Famously, there was a series of votes over 2 days in parliament held in 2019 - (note! 3 years after the referendum) - to try and figure out 'what the heck IS brexit?'.

Take a look - Brexit was a completely meaningless term even 3 years after the vote! It's unfathomable. They voted among 8 alternatives from an initial choice of (I think) 80 options to try and figure out what Brexit might be.

4) https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/01/b...

----------

Prior to Brexit, only a small fraction of the UK thought immigration was even an issue worth caring about.

5) https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

You can see that even by 2009-2013, only around 20% of the UK saw immigration as a salient issue, despite being continually presented with anti-immigrant hype across the right-wing and tabloid media. In fact, before the UK's right wing tabloids took it up as a theme,

"In 1994, which was the starting point of this data series, less than 5% of respondents thought of immigration as a concern, and it remained rarely mentioned prior to 2000. "

Even today, generally, only a minority of the UK public have negative views about the effects of immigration.

6) https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/...

----------

Finally I note that since Brexit there appears to have been no attempt to limit overall immigration. The Conservatives have been in power for 13 years now and have had large majorities for most of that time. If they had any desire to curtail immigration, they had absolute authority and power to do so. They chose not to. Talk of immigration control etc. and demonisation of immigrants is literally nothing more than an emotional tool used to manipulate the most right-wing voters in the UK to obtain their votes.

I suppose it's a little bit like how abortion is used in the USA, a wedge issue that gets a huge amount of time in national political debate, because it is powerfully used to trigger a particular set of voters to vote a particular way, if you show them the right images and headlines at the right time.

----------

And here's the proof: Britain, with total control over immigration, chooses not to reduce it.

7) https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/the-brexit-effect...

"The Brexit effect Leavers didn't expect: A rise in immigration"

"By ending the free movement of people between the UK and Europe, Britain has unexpectedly created a record flow of migrant workers from lower-income countries.... If that was their aim, Brexit failed them. Six years on, a record number of migrants is flowing into Britain ' and the biggest group is from India. "

lux
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Author: BenSolar   😊 😞
Number: of 48489 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/05/2023 5:19 PM
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The UK already had the ability to limit immigration as an EU member.

In fact, this is what most other EU countries chose to do but the UK purposefully chose NOT to do.
...
Talk of immigration control etc. and demonisation of immigrants is literally nothing more than an emotional tool used to manipulate the most right-wing voters in the UK to obtain their votes...Britain, with total control over immigration, chooses not to reduce it.


Very interesting, thanks for the links backing up your statements. Brexit seems to be quite the boondoggle. How do you expect things to work out in coming years? Any chance of reversal, or just muddling forward as a FREE!!! nation?
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Author: luxmain   😊 😞
Number: of 48489 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/06/2023 6:46 AM
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> Very interesting, thanks for the links backing up your statements. Brexit seems to be quite the boondoggle. How do you expect things to work out in coming years? Any chance of reversal, or just muddling forward as a FREE!!! nation?

The UK is in a lot of trouble. There is neither competence, nor the ability to install competence for at least another year or two, in Westminster.

The degree of rot in public services, due to underfunding and hostile management, has become too much to bear and the UK is seeing massive strike action. Today for example I believe is the biggest strike in the history of the NHS.

Brexit has driven almost all rational politicians out of the Conservative party, just as Trump did to the modern Republican party.

The FPTP system creates an unhealthy dynamic.

a) you effectively have only two parties in Westminster, selected by England (Scotland generally votes as a block for the SNP, who are the third party, and have almost no power as a result)

b) to get power within FPTP, both parties believe they must appeal to the 'least flexible' voters who are essentially the British far right / xenophobes. The Overton Window gets dragged further to the right each year.

Corruption is absolutely endemic at the top, and the UK is plunging down the global league tables for governance and corruption.

Tipping points are dangerously near, in terms of crumbling public services, the faith in the system, and economics, and simple economic reserve strength to cope with crisis. The pound had a crash last year which was VERY steep, I mean literally months ago, people were talking about pound-dollar parity! Major financial firms were really on the brink, relating to LDI investments. They were bailed out at taxpayer expense. And that was likely only the tip of the iceberg, I suspect gilt yields soaring would have uncovered a lot of cockroaches.

I feel the UK is worryingly close to a "Greek Crisis" or perhaps something like the 1976 IMF crisis. But not just money this time, also a breakdown in social and political values, in hope that things can get better or are worth making better, in the belief that politics is anything other than a cash grab. A large part of this is driven by the UK media being fairly right wing and more or less bullying left-wing politicians while downplaying anything the right does. Any time a right-wing politician does something bad, it's time to talk about The Queen/The King/Harry/Meghan/Love Island/Football.

Teaching, healthcare, policing, elderly care, all are struggling to keep going. Assets have been sold off, salaries have been pared back, and the money 'saved' handed out to 'friends of the party' via massive corrupt contracts.

I suppose you might characterise it something like, the Labour party are presently mostly decent people, with diverse views, who stick together when it doesn't matter and have in-fighting when it does matter. The Tories seem to be the opposite. The party is ridden with the seven deadly sins, full of corruption, bullying, xenophobia, spite, but when there's a vote, they vote the party line. And when there's no vote taking place, they resort to infighting that undermines any effort to actually understand and solve problems the country is facing.

Nonetheless, 4 elections and 3 major referendums starting in 2010 have proven that Brits will stubbornly vote for the status quo again and again (in terms of politicians & political structures) regardless of the suffering it inflicts upon themselves, with the exception if you can wrap up an idea as being 'Britain is better than everyone else', in which case, you can overcome the status quo bias, as we saw with Brexit.

The Labour party are trying to do a re-run of the 1997 election by mimicking the policies of the Conservatives, while offering 'a more safe/sensible/less obviously corrupt face at the top'. This was successful in 1997 and I suspect it may be successful again. I fear it will be only a 5 year reprieve. And it's possible the Conservatives will install Boris back into power, because an amazing number of Brits will vote for The Funny Man! He's A Right Laugh, Isn't He! The Conservatives may also go for the US right-wing play, "Rest Assured, We'll Hurt The Right People" as it has worked tremendously well for the last 13 years.

Things look grim, and are getting grimmer. The only good news in UK politics currently is that the polls have finally swung towards Labour in England, and that support for helping Ukraine as much as we can, is strong both within politics and the public mood.

If Britain can stop itself toppling over til the next election and if it can choose a Labour government with a strong majority, then I think Britain will muddle through. If the Tories are chosen again, or if there is too much bad luck in the next year or two, I am not sure Britain will muddle through.

There is a significant brain drain taking place, especially in medicine, teaching, academia, IT.

lux

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Author: Vision25   😊 😞
Number: of 48489 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/06/2023 12:23 PM
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Brexit wasn't a policy fight, it was a constitutional one.

If you ask people why they voted Brexit, for most it was the chance to give two fingers to the elite.

(So it wasn't a fight for policies, but for the opportunity to seek them, and the ability to hold politicians to account for failing to deliver them.

So we have the Brexit dividend already. We can see the government for the rotten lot they are, and they can't hide behind claiming the EU made them do it.

Brexit was never going to deliver an abrupt and favourable change in the laws we live under. But it was a necessary pre-condition for any positive change).
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Author: luxmain   😊 😞
Number: of 48489 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/06/2023 3:29 PM
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> If you ask people why they voted Brexit, for **most** it was the chance to give two fingers to the elite.

This is a claim that requires evidence, which you have not provided.

Nor will you be be able to provide it, because it does not exist.

This 'interpretation' of the 'meaning' of the vote was promoted enthusiastically *after* the vote by right wing populists. [1]

I would say it seems nothing more than an attempt to spin populist gold out of straw.

Let's be real: the UK was covered with posters (and buses) claiming that Brexit would mean 'far more money to the health service' and 'less coloured people coming here'. Those sort of claims played a large role in many minds.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/16/n...

However, I could certainly accept that a substantial minority of leave voters ('many', not 'most') used this sort of feeling as *a* reason and a much smaller minority used it as *the* reason.

But only in the sense that some people really are simple enough to reason 'that posh boy PM plonker on the telly is saying I should do X, so eff him, I will do Y'.

There is also the problem of determining why people voted 'before' vs 'after' the vote. I know a lot of Leave voters who spent time coming up with reasons post-hoc why they had voted as they did, which they somehow had never spoken of at any point prior to the vote. (Lately, several of these people that I know in real life, insist loudly at any available opportunity, that they voted Remain.)


> But it was a necessary pre-condition for any positive change

It was not, in any way, a necessary precondition for positive change.

If what you claim were true, the UK would have been incapable of positive change prior to joining the EU and all EU countries would currently be incapable of positive change.

That is an absurdity.

I'm sorry, but somewhere along the line, you have been tricked into believing something ridiculous.

Not an uncommon situation in modern British politics.

-------

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_vote_i...

(note - this is one section among many!)

Anti-establishment populism

"The idea of voting in favour of Brexit was seen by many as a way to protest against the Establishment and the elite who were seen to have ignored "the will of the people" for too long. The result of the referendum was branded as such by Nigel Farage, who claimed it to be a victory against "big merchant banks" and "big politics"."

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Author: luxmain   😊 😞
Number: of 48489 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/07/2023 8:52 AM
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One other point about 'the future of Britain'.

Banning strikes, making protesting illegal, are not the sort of things you would expect of a country that is becoming economically stronger and more socially developed.

lux
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Author: Vision25   😊 😞
Number: of 48489 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/13/2023 7:15 PM
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It is correct I haven't provided any direct evidence, but then neither have you.

However, I have been involved in UK politics since 1979 at a pretty high level and I have access to sources that are not in the public domain, although a large amount of data is available if you know where to look and are able to interpret it.

Having said that, it is obvious that the reasons can only be inferred after the fact anyway.

So when you say that only "some" people voted against David Cameron, the PM at the time, well yes thats true, but a different "some" people voted against all of the political leaders/parties so that clearly doesn't add to your argument.

As for Brexit not being necessary for change, consider if a EU country wanted to change something as mundane as the rate of sales tax to less than 15%, oh look, they can't, its illegal.

Just because it is in the Guardian newspaper or wikipedia doesn't mean to say it is true.
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Author: Vision25   😊 😞
Number: of 48489 
Subject: Re: BOE raises rates again to 4%
Date: 02/13/2023 7:27 PM
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Ok, lets take making protests illegal.

Thats not actually happening, is it.

What is happening is to make blocking roads etc, even more illegal than they already are and allow the police etc to deal with such without having to consider other laws like health & safety legislation and PACE etc.

Your use of "socially developed" is a loaded term as well although you may actually not know this.
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