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Doesn't make his analysis any more correct.
Doesn't make it wrong, either.
I personally don't think any of them are all that likely - but even if you disagree and think one of those scenarios is going to unfold, they are not happening right now.
Yeah. And?
Obviously they can't do anything while the bombs are falling, but eventually the bombs will stop falling, and they'll have all the resources that come with a sizable economy and a ton of oil wealth to restart whatever it is they're going to do. So whatever the strategic goals are (and they shift a lot), this article doesn't provide a lot of support for the contention that the campaign is working to achieve them. At least, thus far.
From the article:
When you look at what has actually happened to Iran’s principal instruments of power – its ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear infrastructure, its air defences, its navy and its proxy command architecture – the picture is not one of US failure. It is one of systematic, phased degradation of a threat that previous administrations allowed to grow for four decades.
This is true.
It's going to take a while to knock all this stuff down and see what can be done from there. Declaring everything a failure now is somewhat premature.
