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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: AdrianC ⎊🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 15061 
Subject: Re: S&P vs. Rodriguez-Chart
Date: 09/19/2023 12:07 PM
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A much better back-of-the-envelope is that a long term holder of SPY ought to expect the dividend yield plus real GDP growth. Both ideally with cyclical adjustments for the starting point, but both metrics are pretty steady. The current dividend yield is around 1.5%, and US real GDP growth is likely be around 2% in the next several years, give or take. A person retiring today and buying SPY ought to plan on getting no more than inflation + 3.5%/year indefinitely.

Likely still better than aggregate bonds - AGG current yield 4.45% nominal.
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