Please be positive and upbeat in your interactions, and avoid making negative or pessimistic comments. Instead, focus on the potential opportunities.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 0
After a brief rise from its swoon to ~$140 after the earnings report it is now down to ~$138. When does GOOGL start to look tempting?
Rgds,
HH/Sean
No. of Recommendations: 1
If you believe their problems are fixable, I would say now. It's in a solid uptrend just having a bad week.
No. of Recommendations: 5
If you believe their problems are fixable, I would say now. It's in a solid uptrend just having a bad week.
I have a position, just letting it sit there, the lazy approach (not usually my style at all). The firm is not going anywhere, and will be worth more over time.
But to your comment, I'm not as sure about the solid uptrend. The price has been (raggedly) lagging the average S&P 500 stock since mid October. Anecdotally I find changes in relative-to-market performance are sometimes a better leading indicator of a move.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 2
But to your comment, I'm not as sure about the solid uptrend. The price has been (raggedly) lagging the average S&P 500 stock since mid October. Anecdotally I find changes in relative-to-market performance are sometimes a better leading indicator of a move.Fair enough. I suppose technical analysis will vary from person to person. I like to look at the 50 and 200 day moving averages. When a stock and 50day are over the 200, I consider it an uptrend.
https://i.postimg.cc/mgP5Z4wd/Screenshot-2024-02-2...I hear you on the relative performance, but if it was beating the S&P 500, we probably wouldn't be discussing it on the falling knives board. :-)
Far more important to me is the story. If I stop believing in the company, then I'm out. My thoughts are that they are arrogant and bloated, but they will start to feel the pressure to make the necessary changes, and that they have the resources to do so. If they simply announce a META inspired year of efficiency, the stock should soar.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Have a look at the Lex Friedman Bill Ackman interview on YouTube they go into quite a bit of detail on Alphabet about long term competitive advantage etc. I continue to hold for the long term. c15% position for me.
No. of Recommendations: 13
I hear you on the relative performance, but if it was beating the S&P 500, we probably wouldn't be discussing it on the falling knives board. :-)
Fair enough!
Far more important to me is the story. If I stop believing in the company, then I'm out. My thoughts are that they are arrogant and bloated
Perhaps so. But they are so obscenely profitable they can get away with that. In the ad biz, they aren't the competition, they're the market.
I used to do some work for Bristol Myers Squibb, and they were horribly bloated: bureaucratic and inefficient. But it was a business with so much money flowing through it that it just didn't matter much. Great art collection, too. I don't know about Alphabet's art, but maybe the bloat-wth-cash has parallels.
I have always assumed Alphabet they will blow (say) 15% of their earnings on things that never have a return. Meh, that's life. The other 85% is still formidable. If I wrote you a cheque for $100bn, could you set up as a viable competitor to undercut them and steal a meaningful cut of their business? Nope.
It's never conventionally cheap, but I have little doubt that their earnings per share will be higher in 5 years, and higher still in 10. The bulletproofness counts for a lot to me.
Historically one could do particularly well with entries at under 6 times sales, but that target multiple should be expected to come down slowly over time. So I don't see it as unusually compelling at the moment, just in the broad zone of (for them) normality.
Last 10 years:
Revenue/share up 20.5%/year
Cash flow per share up 20%/year
Earnings per share up 19.5%/year
All of those figures are higher if you look only at the last five years. And I don't foresee the growth grinding to a halt any time soon.
Consequently these conventionally rich valuation levels seems almost sane to me (and I'm a cheapo), given the relative predictability. The reverse of Nvidia, who is doing outrageously well but nobody knows what their business will really look like in 5 or 10 years.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 3
Interesting on the "all in podcast" I posted on the BRK board about peak Apple, see the Android vs iOS coverage in emerging markets.
Very encouraging for Alphabet, this allied with cheap android phones available at c$25 with high penetration, it's likely they won't switch in future IMO as discussed.
I've tried Apple but have always been Google / Android myself. Love it.
