Stocks A to Z / Stocks T / Tesla (TSLA)
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2)Elon says safety driver gone by the end of the year.
3)2M downloaded the Robotaxi app on the first day.
I don't think there is much signal here. We can get a good sense of where Tesla really believes they are in regards to L4 autonomous ride hailing by looking at where they are in the regulatory process. Thus far, Tesla has not applied for specific AV ride hailing permits in any jurisdiction. We know from Waymo's and Cruise's experience in California and elsewhere this can take many months, sometimes over a year depending on how you look at it. Ride hailing permits in general can take a long time. So knowing the long time lines required, why hasn't Tesla at least started the permit process in a number of jurisdictions even if they intend to roll it out slowly? The reasons are pretty clear: Tesla doesn't think their tech is good enough to pass the regulatory hurdles. They won't apply for permits until they think they can get them.
Texas is a special case. Tesla does have a general ride hailing permit which includes AVs. However, AV's must be certified as safe by the Texas DMV. TxDMV's rules are expected to be promulgated by the end of the year, and go into effect six months after that.
So even if the tech is ready, the safety driver will still be there by the end of the year for regulatory reasons alone.
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Ride hailing permits in general can take a long time. So knowing the long time lines required, why hasn't Tesla at least started the permit process in a number of jurisdictions even if they intend to roll it out slowly? The reasons are pretty clear: Tesla doesn't think their tech is good enough to pass the regulatory hurdles. They won't apply for permits until they think they can get them.
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So even if the tech is ready, the safety driver will still be there by the end of the year for regulatory reasons alone.
The only important question is the tech. Who cares about the rest? If the tech is ready, it will be rolled out when it's rolled out, and Tesla will make a fortune. If the tech isn't ready, then they won't apply for permits because they wouldn't get them anyways, and if they did, they would lose them as soon as accidents started happening. Whether this takes a few months or 6 or 12 or 18 months doesn't really change the present value of the company very much.
No one really knows whether the tech is almost ready or not, but I would say the early signs from Austin and San Francisco look pretty encouraging. Could be wrong.
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The only important question is the tech. Who cares about the rest? If the tech is ready, it will be rolled out when it's rolled out, and Tesla will make a fortune. If the tech isn't ready, then they won't apply for permits because they wouldn't get them anyways, and if they did, they would lose them as soon as accidents started happening. Whether this takes a few months or 6 or 12 or 18 months doesn't really change the present value of the company very much.
Totally agree. The tech leads, everything else follows. My point is simply that the number of app downloads tells us nothing about the state of the tech. It just says there is public interest. Which is good, but not much signal. Elon's performance incentives doesn't tell us anything either.
So what would be signal? The only way we know of (at least I know of) to gleen where Tesla really thinks they are tech-wise is to see where they are in the permitting process. As of right now, they haven't started. That means they don't think they are ready. That could change tomorrow, but that's where we are today.
I do think time frame matters though. Tesla's plan is to come up with an inexpensive, universal solution that eats everyone's lunch. But in the meantime, other companies are converging on the same solution, just from different directions. That is, other companies are already moving into the space that Tesla hopes to occupy. Just today for example, Zoox started offering rides to the public in a dedicated robotaxi vehicle (no driver controls). Waymo of course is offering L4 ride hailing and so on. The longer Tesla waits, the more operational expertise its competitors get, more fleet infrastructure is developed in more cities, software and sensors improve, etc. All this erodes Tesla's potential advantage.
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