No. of Recommendations: 2
Here's a good (too long) discussion of humanoid robots:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AC004kwZO-Q&t=800sTL;DR: Convergence of different technologies are enabling an orders of magnitude change in the cost and capabilities of robots. Look to the smart phone for an analogy only this is more on the scale of electricity or fire. Humanoid will be the dominant embodiment because so many different skills are enabled with our biological form and the world is already designed around us.
This, and products like this, is why Nvidia is valued at 3T. Current earnings are instructive only in that they establish them as having the capital and skill to execute on their business plan. The products they'll be selling in ten years do not exist today.
The only way to properly value a company like Nvidia is to guess at what they'll be selling, estimate how much of that they'll be selling, hypothesize what the margins are on those products and then take a wild-assed guess at what the multiple will be on those earnings. When I've done this kind of analysis before I break it down into a good and bad outcome, give each an equal weight to arrive at a value ... and then discount it back to today. (Not an easy task, requires multiple napkins.) Be prepared to spend a lot of time and energy. Even then, NVDA belongs in the "too hard" pile for 99% of us. That's where it's been for me.
The other investing methodology is the "Jesus take the wheel" strategy. Invest in a great CEO, which Nvidia certainly has. Still, would have been better to figure all this out before the recent 10X.
