...as am I. But just for fun—next time you go to look something up (“Google it”)—try using Grok or ChatGPT. I usually run three or four windows side by side and let them duke it out like a lunatic. Hah.

Now imagine LLMs improving to the point where they suggest multiple sources, summarize across them, generate video answers... Even if that’s just as good as Gemini, it starts to erode Google’s edge. Now picture X or ChatGPT bundling search with payments, social, news—and offering a dead-simple email port. Yikes… or not yikes? It’s a great thought experiment.

Apple’s moat, for example, has one or two key walls—iMessage being a big one. I can’t imagine breaking my message history. But if iMessage ported to Android, Apple’s pricing power (at least for someone like me) would drop instantly.

I’d argue there’s a real chance—maybe 10–30%—that if you pull the Search/Ads rug out from under Alphabet, the rest could unravel quickly (or at least shrink drastically).

That said, I think today’s valuation reflects that risk reasonably well.

Alphabet FAQ

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