Post #11136 by AdrianC on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤

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This is 'timely':

Protecting Your Portfolio Can Come at a Steep Cost
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting...

Bill Bengen, author of the 4% (now 4.7%) 'rule':
“I don’t think ‘buy and hold’ makes sense for retirees,” says retired financial advisor William Bengen. “Their nest egg is crucial. They have to do whatever is possible to maintain their nest egg at reasonable levels.”
...
“Mine is a tactical, short-term position based on advice from my risk-management service,” Bengen says. “They feel it is a high-risk market environment, and I have to agree.”

Bill Bernstein:
“There’s a hard truth behind such portfolios, which is [that] thinking of de-risking your portfolio every time you get nervous demonstrates a lack of investing discipline,” Bernstein told Barron’s in an email. “The stock market rewards in rough proportion to perceived risk, so responding to increased risk by pulling back from stocks will usually (but not always) be doing the wrong thing at the right time.”

He doesn’t stop there. “And since that’s true most of the time, if you do it repeatedly it’s almost certain that your long-term returns will suffer.”

Bengen agrees. He says if you permanently kept just 25% of your portfolio in equities, his 4.7% rule wouldn’t necessarily hold true, because you might not have enough gains to fund that level of withdrawals.

Maybe different if you use and can stick with a disciplined timing strategy?

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