Post #40690 by PucksFool on the US Policy board

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Predictions are hard especially about the future. - attributed to Yogi Berra

There were so many predictions about an impending recession during Biden's presidency that I just stopped listening to them. The one thing I don't remember them having was a projected starting time. This one has that.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-there-is-75-cha...
With around-the-clock tariff headlines pounding stocks, recession calls or predictions for a sharp economic slowdown are coming into the light.

The most dire one dropped today.

BCA Research's veteran strategist Peter Berezin said he sees a 75% chance of a recession within the next three months.

"Conventional estimates understate the likely impact on economic activity from the trade war and DOGE cuts. This implies that growth will slow more than expected," Berezin said.

Berezin outlined three key underpinnings to his prediction.

First, higher tariffs hammer real incomes of workers, which slows demand. Two, the shoddy way tariffs policy is being handled is raising public and business uncertainty. And lastly, tariffs are likely to push up inflation and make the Federal Reserve less willing to cut interest rates.

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