"Of course something will happen to turn the market around at some point, but for now, the traffic light seems set to green. That will eventually change, when signs of the next recession show up, perhaps."

Think me, it's time to lighten up a bit more. That will bring equities down to about 30% of assets. There is little need for me to be greedy and, while I can't pin down when, I'm figuring that it will not be a recession that tilts things, but rather the uncerrtainty that a shift in the policies of our new national leadership will cause. In a world where, sooner or later, things revert to the mean, hitting that line will offer a better buy-in level than here. In the meantime, my perception is that the differential in mid-term return from stocks may not be justified by the increaase in risk when cash is still earning over 4%.

We'll see.

Jeff

Macroeconomic Trends and Risks FAQ

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