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Has the desire to talk politics on this board gotten a bit out of control? It started off with a legitimate point which is that investments in this environment are hard to discuss without talking about tariff policy, investor confidence in the rule of law, and deficit impact on rates. But it feels like its gotten away from that and into more personal attacks.

Maybe now is a good time to ask people to move the discussion to the appropriate boards and to exercise self restraint in their posts / counter posts so that the BOD can be cleared of some of the "message traffic" on the political threads in advance of the annual meeting. That should give us all something to discuss that returns the center of conversation to BRK related business analysis.

I regret bringing it up, since it can't be discussed maturely.

It is a shame that BRK has been boring lately.

Concur

There was an initial reasonable argument for letting the camel's nose into the tent, but the time is come to shoo it out, tie the flap, and try to ignore the odor. It will dissipate in time.

In the words of the famous philosopher J Cricket: "Enough's enough"

https://youtu.be/2a446RWN-vA?si=v2qgD9o174O5Lsp9

-- sutton

Agree, and apologies for contributing.
In my (weak) defense, I felt like this xkcd comic: https://xkcd.com/386/

Has the desire to talk politics on this board gotten a bit out of control?

I confess, I deleted 3 unposted replies to all political no economics posts earlier this morning, rather than submit them. I think you are spot on. It takes an effort to make sure you are on the proper board for a political reply when replying to an all political post. Sadly, I also think it is a completely wasted effort to reply.

IP

I felt like this xkcd comic: https://xkcd.com/386/

May I encourage folks in the future to use this as shorthand?

Not responding is best, but typing 386 would be a close second.

Rgds,
HH/Sean

YoungandOld: Has the desire to talk politics on this board gotten a bit out of control?

InParadise: I confess, I deleted 3 unposted replies to all political no economics posts earlier this morning, rather than submit them.

I suggest a solution, based on InParadise´s post: I understand Manlobbi does not introduce editing capabilities after posting, as he wants people to THINK SERIOUSLY before posting.

But what about being able to within a limited time, a day or even just an hour, being able to delete one´s own post?


If emotionally charged, people push "Submit" spontaneously --- and regret it a little later. Not being able to edit what´s posted doesn´t change that, as it is a reaction, not a rational reply.

Plus: Sometimes one does wrong calculations, but realizes that too late.
And: Especially non-native English speakers often only later realise what the other REALLY meant (I am talking from own experience).

All of that would be solved by clicking soon after on "Delete my post", and write it anew - or not.

A technical point regarding my proposed solution: I understand if person B replies immediatedly to a post from person A, and A deletes his post after 10min this could be confusing, kind of "What is B replying to?".

This could be remedied similar to the grey "...faint murmuring in the distance" you see instead of the post of an poster you put on "Ignore": By replacing the deleted post with a grey "...it was there, and now it´s gone", making clear what's happened --- plus reminding A himself on not being too spontaneous, so that Manlobbi´s psychological intention is still fulfilled.

Good points, Said. Always enjoy your comments; one of the more rational people on this board

There was an initial reasonable argument for letting the camel's nose into the tent, but the time is come to shoo it out, tie the flap, and try to ignore the odor. It will dissipate in time.

I don’t participate on any other boards. I’m 100% in Berkshire since early 90’s. When idiots start political posts here I will reply. Never would I think of starting one.

On April 7, I posted the followed Thanks to Manlobbie - and it received positive support.

I want to thank Manlobbi for permitting the various threads concerning the tariff crisis - and causes - to continue thus far on our BRK board. It can logically be argued that these all belong on the Politic Asylum board. And I have argued so in the past.

What's different this time is that the "Tariff Crisis" - while not really a black swan - can be as significant as was the Covid crisis in terms of impacting Berkshire. And, unfortunately, the PA board is so dominated by the extremes of the left and right arguing that most real "signals" are lost in the "noise" content. You've got to read a lot to get a little - and there's mostly junk mail.

This BRK board differs in that respect. While we have views that are definitely political in nature, they are about subjects that directly impact BRK's primary issue - how and when to invest current cash plus ongoing cash flow. And, given the more reasoned makeup of this board, the "signal" info is not lost in much "noise". We may disagree, but the majority of the opinions are worth a listen.

And so our monitor has seemed to judge so far.

Now circa 2.5 weeks have passed. I believe we did share some good thoughts that the economic/political impacts of the current administration's actions could have on BRK. And it was mostly done in a respectful manner with different sides represented.

Now, calm heads have stated that this has now veered off into posts more typical of the US policy or Political Asylum boards. I agree. It was a good exchange - time to move on. Take these type posts to the appropriate boards.

I still think there's a place for economic impact events that directly relate to BRK's future to be posted. But the connection should be clear - and remain so limited.

So I add my support to the board moving on. And thank Manlobbie for letting the experiment take place.

I've actually used this board as a significant sentiment indicator. It's been flashing an aggressive buy signal to me to markets in general recently and Berkshire in particular longer term. I mean I felt like a blind fool pounding the table here at $450 and told it had to trade sub $400 to be a buy. More recently--when smart, thoughtful people turn this negative, go this consistently off topic and aren't really distinguishable from the crowd-we have, by my thinking, hit maximum bearishness.

I've actually used this board as a significant sentiment indicator. It's been flashing an aggressive buy signal ... we have, by my thinking, hit maximum bearishness.

Interesting and ballsy call.

The AAII sentiment survey had one of its highest 'bearish' readings in history in early April, at 61.9%, and the most recent one is still very, very high at 55.6%, as it has been all month.

It understand the value of looking at this data as contrary indicators, but it just doesn't compute for me that this has been and still is a great buying opportunity.

I'm one of the sheep who sold some stuff as the market was dropping. I maybe/probably should have immediately made the trade I was planning to do: switch from the mostly large cap stuff I sold (plus one small cap that had gotten disproportionately large in my portfolio) to a small-cap value index, or similar.

I think a lot of people are waiting on the other shoe to drop ... is Trump going to declare victory on tariffs and rationalize them at something like a 10% baseline, with a rational schedule of exemptions and items/countries with higher tariffs? Or is he going to continue to punish the markets with large irrational tariffs, and will things cascade lower when the national news starts reflecting data of swelling unemployment and plummeting profits.

Even if he does rationalize to some extent, I expect there is going to be big time economic impact dragging those numbers the wrong way from his disruption of government and government funding along with the tariffs.

I'm thinking of selling more if this bounce continues.

I think the panic reflected in those near record high numbers early in the month was entirely justified, but Trump quickly removed the biggest cause of panic: his "reciprocal" tariffs. And the market skyrocketed. But, the ongoing damage is immense and I think the bulls are buying on hope, not what is likely to happen.

<<I think the panic reflected in those near record high numbers early in the month was entirely justified,<<

Those numbers historically are ALWAYS justified. There are always real reasons why people are negative. People don't just get very negative for no reason. It's not that easy.

People don't just get very negative for no reason. It's not that easy.


Are you kidding?

People panic at the drop of a hat.

Maybe now is a good time to ask people to move the discussion to the appropriate boards and to exercise self restraint in their posts / counter posts so that the BOD can be cleared of some of the "message traffic" on the political threads in advance of the annual meeting. That should give us all something to discuss that returns the center of conversation to BRK related business analysis.

We've tried asking them to self-deport from this board. Not many have.

I propose it is now time for Manlobbi to form a new board, perhaps call it "El Salvadoran Terrorism Prison" and then Manlobbi (or a designated cabinet secretary) can then move the worst violating thread each day at midnight from the BRK board to that other board. I don't think it would take that many days before the thrill of berating other BRK boarders for voting in a way you don't approve of would wear off.

R:

I think different, the Board has clearly been self-correcting since this thread was posted.

How about we keep doing that. Annual conference is around the corner and I’m sure we’ll have more to talk about shortly.

I propose it is now time for Manlobbi...

I think not. His call seems to be perfect. To do simply nothing and let it evaporate by itself. I actually was tired to look at the board, as I am not interested in a politics board, with attacks and hatred being exchanged. But lately that changed. A new day, a new hope.

I wrote and LongTermBRK responded "I think the panic reflected in those near record high numbers early in the month was entirely justified,"


Those numbers historically are ALWAYS justified. There are always real reasons why people are negative.

Yes, you have a point. But was there a blood in the streets moment? It was building to that kind of situation, but basically Trump announced the 'reciprocal' tariffs, a lot of people panicked because most people could see that it would be an utter catastrophe, and when the mood got so bad that the bond market was affected, Trump put them on hold.

As I asked before: "will things cascade lower when the national news starts reflecting data of swelling unemployment and plummeting profits?" Many, many companies are taking it on the nose at the momment. The tariffs he left in place, especially the 175% one on China, will be very damaging to the economy. And even if the China tariff gets rationalized down to 25% or something, along with 10% on all countries, it's enough to cause significant problems.

The S&P 500 is off about 10% from it's all time high. Valuation as measured by CAPE is a very, very high 34 with Excess CAPE Yield is a very low 1.8%. The market is priced for robust growth despite the 10% correction. What is the bull case aside of the pessimism?

When you're priced for perfection, yet there are flashing warning signs that a drastic slowdown is occurring, with little reason to expect a turnaround any time soon, downside risk is very high.

BRK is not overpriced to the same extent, but it's priced high enough that in the last couple of decades, one typically saw negative short-term returns when it was this high.

This looks like an opportunity to sell high and buy low in the nearish future. But it's hard to do successfully, no doubt. I won't be surprised if I end up looking dumb.

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