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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝🐝 BRONZE
SHREWD
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Number: of 12641 
Subject: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/02/2024 4:15 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 26
I use a few different valuation metrics. Book value, "two and a half column" value, with and without a few cyclical adjustments, blah blah blah. Looking at the historical ratios of price to metric on each, you get a guess of where the historically "likely" price might be.

Adding in estimates of typical annual real value growth per share and US inflation in the next year, you can get an idea of where the nominal share price might be expected to land in a year. I assumed monetary inflation of 3.1% and observable growth in value per share of inflation + 7.5%.

Long story short, the sundry models suggest one might expect a price in the range of $425 per B share, plus or minus $15 depending on the model, if growth is typical and ending valuations are typical of the post-credit-crunch era. With today's price around $452 per B share, we may still be within a zone of reasonableness, but not in a zone that a particularly good year for the stock price seems likely.

Obviously stock prices can do anything, so that's no more accurate than a one month weather forecast. But it's reasonably likely that you'll see a better than average year starting from better than average valuations levels...and vice versa. When you hear hoof beats, expect horses, not zebras.

Jim
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Author: Gator1984   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/03/2024 10:08 AM
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Food for thought.

I updated my Grove model.

All actual Q3 numbers except Grove #1 - Operating earnings. I used previous year earnings plus 10% growth. I also use a $30 BB deduction from cash for reserves.

I get a value of around $475.

I will also add a new twist.

As we sell equities and move to cash, operating earnings carry the majority of the valuation. Cash is valued at what you can earn with it, currently slightly below 5%. BRK Q3 earnings with some small adjustments to normalize insurance and currency losses is now tracking around $12 BB a quarter (a lot more cash in this number going forward). If you assume 10% return on the $271 BB equities, You get about $18 - 19 BB in quarterly earnings or about $75 BB in annual earnings normalized.

Assume PE of 15 (could be higher or lower) and you get a valuation of $1.05 trillion or about $470 per share.

That seems reasonable to me.

I think $425 may be too low for me.

Of course IV may push $500 by the end of next year.






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Author: WEBspired 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/03/2024 12:49 PM
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“Assume PE of 15 (could be higher or lower) and you get a valuation of $1.05 trillion or about $470 per share.”

Thanks, Gator! Seems very reasonable imo. Bloomstran had average I.V. $480 range in his February letter. Well if Warren is not repurchasing and we are within 5% or so of I.V., I wonder if some folks, esp. retirees, are becoming more tempted to trim some BRK shares. I have not yet, but it may be tempting to trim a little to help cover life expenses in the new year (to postpone the LTCG), esp. if B shares are priced $475-500. Are other retirees here looking at this the same way?
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/03/2024 2:25 PM
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but it may be tempting to trim a little ... if B shares are priced $475-500. Are other retirees here looking at this the same way?

Yup. I've got an open GTC sell for $501.
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Author: hummingbird   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/04/2024 9:55 AM
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trimmed slighly at 460 -ish ..retiree here... pays all my property taxes at end year... may trim more if it goes up above there again before end year.
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Author: AdrianC   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/05/2024 1:36 PM
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I updated my Grove model.

All actual Q3 numbers except Grove #1 - Operating earnings. I used previous year earnings plus 10% growth. I also use a $30 BB deduction from cash for reserves.

I get a value of around $475.


I did mine, FWIW.
Same $30 BB deduction from cash.
Used actual op earnings, rolling 4 qtrs, 15x
Insurance underwriting earnings, rolling 4 qtrs, 10x
Deductions for taxes due on equities if sold.

Estimated IV $444

I've noted that I always get a somewhat lower value than you.

I'll redo my look-thru when the holdings come out. Funnily enough, it's likely to be higher due to a higher earnings yield on cash vs Apple!
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Author: AdrianC   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/05/2024 1:44 PM
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Just a comment on the cash. In 2020 (before COVID) Buffett said this:
2/24/2020 WEB Squawk Box: "So, we’re about 80% in-- roughly in equities and about 20% in cash".

By that same measure, we're now roughly about 70% in equities and about 30% in cash.
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Author: ciao8   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/05/2024 5:23 PM
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FWIW.....this from Tilsons latest IV estimate,

"Thus, my estimate of Berkshire's intrinsic value is about $444,000 (cash and investments) plus roughly $275,000 (operating businesses), for a total of around $719,000 per A-share or $479 per B-share."

https://stansberryresearch.com/articles/my-updated...

ciao
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/05/2024 7:00 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Gator1984:
All actual Q3 numbers except Grove #1 - Operating earnings. I used previous year earnings plus 10% growth. I also use a $30 BB deduction from cash for reserves.

I get a value of around $475.
=====
AdrianC:
I did mine, FWIW.
Same $30 BB deduction from cash.
Used actual op earnings, rolling 4 qtrs, 15x
Insurance underwriting earnings, rolling 4 qtrs, 10x
Deductions for taxes due on equities if sold.



My question for either of you: when you deduct the $30b in cash, I presume that is because Buffett has said that he would not use that cash for acquisitions. But nevertheless, it IS invested, usually in short-term treasurh bills, with 1-month Treasuries currently yielding 4.75%. Seems like it should still be in the valuation, even if it's not available for buying stocks or companies.

Also, underwriting from just 4 quarters or even a few years is going to be volatile. Why not use a number like the 20-year average underwriting profit, applied to current earned premiums? When I looked at this a couple of years ago (https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=679561978) I got a 22-year average of 3.2% (pre-tax) underwriting earnings on $74.6b in earned premiums, which was $2.3b pre-tax, $1.9b post-tax. Mungofitch mentioned at that time that he does a similar calculation, and arrived at 2.70% of earned premiums in the same date range.

Updating this for 2023, we had earned premiums were $83.4b (the increase stemming largely from the Alleghany purchase), and relatively good earnings at $5.4b (6.5% of earned premiums). Updating my table with those number, and calculating what is now a 23 year time period (cherry-picked just to include the awfully bad 2001) we would have an average of 3.35% now, which would give us very smoothed pre-tax underwriting earnings of $2793m.

Curious what you think of this reasoning and how that underwriting compares to the one that you put in your grove analysis.

DTBN
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Author: AdrianC   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/06/2024 7:50 AM
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My question for either of you: when you deduct the $30b in cash, I presume that is because Buffett has said that he would not use that cash for acquisitions. But nevertheless, it IS invested, usually in short-term treasurh bills, with 1-month Treasuries currently yielding 4.75%. Seems like it should still be in the valuation, even if it's not available for buying stocks or companies.

I think of it as a small offset of the float liability, currently $174b.

Also, underwriting from just 4 quarters or even a few years is going to be volatile.

True, and I only include it because it seemed to be the board consensus to do so. Buffett didn't include underwriting earnings in his original 5-groves.

If I include the $30b cash, and underwriting earnings of $2793m, I get: $441 vs $444 previously.
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/06/2024 9:16 AM
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Also, underwriting from just 4 quarters or even a few years is going to be volatile.

True, and I only include it because it seemed to be the board consensus to do so. Buffett didn't include underwriting earnings in his original 5-groves.

If I include the $30b cash, and underwriting earnings of $2793m, I get: $441 vs $444 previously.



Ok. Looks like including the cash would be a small positive, offset by the fact that using the long-term average underwriting return is a little less positive than last year's stellar underwriting results.

I thought we might be heading towards a share price around $425 where I would reestablish my Berkshire stake, but the market's trumpphoria may postpone that.

dtb
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Author: Said   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/06/2024 9:52 AM
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>> I thought we might be heading towards a share price around $425 where I would reestablish my Berkshire stake, but the market's trumpphoria may postpone that. <<

At $425 I'd sell what remains of my BRK puts which were very profitable, but now I might be able to repeat that, buying again puts if we reach $470. Nobody else into that? Options are fun, and the dark side of the force, puts, especially so.
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Author: Gator1984   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/06/2024 1:38 PM
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I agree with your observations.

I do reduce my cash by $30 BB and I also include Rails cash. Net is about $25 BB.

I also use long term average underwriting profit as a percentage of premiums. Currently around 3.2%.

My Groves are:

1) Operating Earnings at 15X - $190
2 - Equities - $104
3 - Partially Owned Businesses - $19
4 - Cash & Equivalents - $146
5 - Underwriting gains - $16

Total - $475.

Let me know if you get any differences for any of the Groves. Then we can compare?

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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/06/2024 4:41 PM
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My Groves are:

1) Operating Earnings at 15X - $190
2 - Equities - $104
3 - Partially Owned Businesses - $19
4 - Cash & Equivalents - $146
5 - Underwriting gains - $16

Total - $475.

Let me know if you get any differences for any of the Groves. Then we can compare?



OK, it took me longer than I thought it would. It's been a long time since I've done this, so bear with me. My initial numbers are quite different, probably because I'm screwing something up. I get:

1) Operating Earnings at 15X: $21,721m, divided by 2171m B-equivalent shares, =$10.00/sh, times 15 = $150.07. You got $190.
This was the most labour intensive to get. I used the numbers reported in Item 2, Results of Operations, (p.30 in the Q3 report), giving the post-tax earnings from BNSF, BHE, Pilot and Manufacturing, Service and Retailing (MSR). I obtained this for the last 12 months by adding Q3, Q2 and Q1 numbers, and 2023 Q4 numbers that I got using the 2023 full year numbers from the annual report and subtracting the numbers from preceding Q1, Q2 and Q3. This gave me $21,721m, divided by 2171 B-equivalent shares, and finally multiplied by 15.

2 - Equities - $271,650m, divided by 2171, = $125.12, then I subtracted 21% of the unrealized equity gains (reported in Note 5, p.10), i.e. 21% of $193,538m divided by 2171m, giving me -$18.72 per share, total $125.12-$18.72 = $106.40. You got $104, so at least we are close here. There is an argument to be made that much of those unrealized gains will not be taxed for a long time, but this is not the year to make that argument :) and neither of us made any adjustment for that.

3 - Partially Owned Businesses - these are just KraftHeinz and Occidental and Other, and they have a carrying value of $30,133m and a fair value of $25,036m (using the fair value for KH and OXY and adding the carrying value of the Other Equity method investments, Note 6, p.11). Dividing by 2171m gives me $11.53 per share, a fair bit lower than your $19. Did you use carrying value? I still don't get to $19.

4 - Cash & Equivalents - I used 4 lines from the balance sheet on p.2: cash and cash equivalents from Insurance and other, $32,287m, along with Treasury bills, $288,031m, and investments in fixed maturity securities, $16,042m, and finally cash in Railroads, Utility and Energy, $4,894, for a total of $341,254m, or $157.18 per share. You got $146, maybe because you didn't count the railroad cash?

5 - Underwriting gains: Here I used the 23-year average earnings yield on premiums earned, 3.32% (you used 3.2%, which was the 22-year average last year), and I applied that to this year's $83,403m in earned premiums, for normalized underwriting earnings of $2,793m, divided by 2171m to give me $1.29 per share, and I multiplied this by 15, like in the 1st grove, to give me $19.30 per share. This is pre-tax; adjusting for 21% tax, I get $15.24 - you got $16, pretty much the same.

My grand total is $440.44.

I wish I had done this long calculation yesterday, when shares closed at $445.06 - maybe I would have just bought some shares. But they're up $24 today, so I guess I'll wait a bit longer. Did Berkshire just get 5% more valuable? Actually, I think it probably did, based on how beautiful the word 'tariff' appears to be to some ears.

Please feel free to correct/critique my numbers and my reasoning. Now that I have the Excel tab set up, it will be easy to update the data, but if there's a better way, I'm all ears.

Regards, DTB
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Author: rrr12345   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/06/2024 7:23 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 11
Thanks to all of you for sharing your IV estimates. I look forward to hearing from more models, such as look-through earnings. We see a number of different models, and different assumptions within each model. Here's a quick summary:

model, person, IV estimate, corresponding P/B

2-1/2 column and other models, Mungofitch, $425/B-share, !.46x BV
Five groves, Gator1984, AdrainC and DTB, $440-$475/B-share, 1.50x to 1.63x BV
2-column, Tilson, $479, 1.64x BV
Sum of the parts, Morningstar, $466, 1.60x BV

Here are a couple of other models for your consideration.

Weighing machine model, rrr12345, $462, 1.60x BV
This model graphs share price versus BVPS and uses the trendline as the IV estimate. This model requires no assumptions about future cash
flows, appropriate discount rate, or appropriate P/E. The only assumption is that over the long term price tracks BV, which is shown by
the data to be true, with r^2 = 0.98.

Stock repurchase model, rrr12345, $482, 1.65x BV
This model assumes that IV is about 5% above Buffett's highest P/B paid.

Please add other models that you have seen.

rrr12345




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Author: AdrianC   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/07/2024 10:07 AM
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1) Operating Earnings at 15X: $21,721m, divided by 2171m B-equivalent shares

I get 1437608 A shares, or 2156 million B shares.

Page 23
On an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,437,608 shares outstanding as of September 30, 2024

Page 1
Number of shares of common stock outstanding as of October 21, 2024:
Class A — 551,977
Class B — 1,328,446,516

Equivalent Class A common stock basis = 551,977 + 1,328,446,516/1500 = 1437608
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/07/2024 11:21 AM
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I get 1437608 A shares, or 2156 million B shares.

Page 23
On an equivalent Class A common stock basis, there were 1,437,608 shares outstanding as of September 30, 2024

Page 1
Number of shares of common stock outstanding as of October 21, 2024:
Class A — 551,977
Class B — 1,328,446,516

Equivalent Class A common stock basis = 551,977 + 1,328,446,516/1500 = 1437608




Yes you are quite right. I just lazily used Yahoo Finance's shares outstading (2171.1m), who knows where they get that, because it looked about right, but your calculation is clearly correct. And incidentally, the fact that the p.1 and p.23 numbers are the same also shows that there were no share repurchases in the 3 weeks between September 30 and October 21.

I have updated my calculation using the 2156.412m number, and it gives me a 5 groves number of $443.43 per B-share, instead of $440.44.

Getting close, especially with Berkshire shares down $7 to $462 today. So I'm back up to a 2% stake, and I'll add more if the price comes down a bit farther...
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Author: nola622 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/07/2024 2:35 PM
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FWIW, I'm using 1,438,223 A-share eq. or 2.1573 Billion B-share equivalents as the most up to date shares outstanding. there were almost a million b-shares issued on Halloween to finish up the BHE deal.


But that's the going-forward number, not the Q3 figure.
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝🐝🐝 BRONZE
SHREWD
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Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/07/2024 2:49 PM
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FWIW, I'm using 1,438,223 A-share eq. or 2.1573 Billion B-share equivalents as the most up to date shares outstanding. there were almost a million b-shares issued on Halloween to finish up the BHE deal. But that's the going-forward number, not the Q3 figure.

It's good to know the up-to-date numbers for things like market cap, but don't use it as the divisor for figures from the previous quarter end, you should use matching dates. That's because stuff that happened after the end of the quarter will generally have both positives (higher share of earnings of BHE) and negatives (higher share count), which usually cancel out pretty closely. You don't want to use one pre-transaction number and divide by another post-transaction number.

I used to use the most recent share count all the time till I realized that this was causing errors.

Jim
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Author: Gator1984   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/07/2024 5:46 PM
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Thanks for detail. I had not updated my model in a while and I made some changes as well.

My updated number is $457. So we are closer.

What did I change and where might the difference be?
Grove 1) I was using PE of 16. Now 15. I also am using LY Operating earnings plus 10% (22.92 BB). $160 for grove 1.
Grove 2) Basically the same. I update mine for QTD estimated gain or loss on the portfolio. You are $106 I am $104 to reflect recent activity since quarter end.
Grove 3) I do include the Oxy preferred and warrants. This is about $10 BB. Do you have these somewhere or am I doing a double count?
Grove 4) I am now $160 and you are a little less at $157. The $3 difference is I am using estimated QTD retained cash from operations. No biggy.
Grove 5) We are very similar. Should the retro losses by added to this as well? How are you viewing retro insurance contract losses?

Thanks.




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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/07/2024 9:28 PM
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Thanks for detail. I had not updated my model in a while and I made some changes as well.

My updated number is $457. So we are closer.

What did I change and where might the difference be?


First, thanks for the detail, you too.

My comments, for what they're worth

Grove 1) I was using PE of 16. Now 15. I also am using LY Operating earnings plus 10% (22.92 BB). $160 for grove 1.

To be honest, I don't really like multiplying by anything in particular, and Buffett has given us no guidance here, as far as I know. To some extent, it is just a matter of having a constant way of doing things to gauge progress. There is no need to actually buy at exactly $457, if that's our estimate, you might well decide that you are a buyer up to 100% or 120% of that, and a seller at a much higher price, and if that's your intention, you just need to be consistent.

I would actually prefer a different technique, which is to take the current market cap, subtract off groves 2, 3 and 4, and then just see what multiple Mr Market is giving to groves 1 and 5. If it's a 15 multiple, then you might say that is fair value, but maybe Berkshire's businesses are worth a bit more than that multiple, who's to say? If the market price is currently 15 or 16 or 20 times the earnings, after subtracting off equities and equity method investments and cash, that's still a pretty good deal in a market where stocks are averaging much higher multiples. Anyways, if we do use a multiple, might as well use the same one. As for the 10% boost, I would just go with the last 12 months, since that's how stocks are usually evaluated, not the estimate of the current run rate, which is, I presume, why you add 10%. But your method is perfectly logical, too.

Grove 2) Basically the same. I update mine for QTD estimated gain or loss on the portfolio. You are $106 I am $104 to reflect recent activity since quarter end.

I would not adjust - this is, for me, a snapshot of what things were like on September 30, not an up to the minute account of the current status, where most of the information I would need to do the update is not available to me.

Grove 3) I do include the Oxy preferred and warrants. This is about $10 BB. Do you have these somewhere or am I doing a double count?

I guess this is probably right, and I should add them. I think they are neither equity nor cash, so this would logically be the place to put them. Does anyone else have an opinion on this? And are there no other preferreds or warrants?

Grove 4) I am now $160 and you are a little less at $157. The $3 difference is I am using estimated QTD retained cash from operations. No biggy.

Just like 2, I don't do this.

Grove 5) We are very similar. Should the retro losses by added to this as well? How are you viewing retro insurance contract losses?

I would have thought they eventually get included in insurance earnings, so if you are using a multi-year average as we are, I would have thought that there was no need to make any such adjustment, but what do I know.


Regards, DTB


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Author: rrr12345   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/08/2024 12:16 AM
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Regarding the repurchase method, 1.565x BV, or $456/B-share, might be a better estimate of IV since Warren repurchased shares in March of this year at that P/BV and also issued shares at that P/BV in September (as partial payment for BHE shares). Buffett has said that he would not repurchase shares at a "mere" 5% discount to IV, but we have to reconcile repurchasing shares and issuing shares at the same P/B.
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Author: rrr12345   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/08/2024 1:04 AM
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For "P/B" in March 2024 and September 2004 I'm using the ending BV for the quarter For completeness we can also calculate the P/BV using the starting BV for the quarter.

March stock repurchases:
Repurchase price = $623,206/A-share equivalent
Starting BV for quarter = $389,372, P/starting BV = 1.601
Ending BV for quarter = $397,627, P/ending BV = 1.567

September stock issuances:
Issue price = $456.70/B-share = $685,052/A-share
Starting BV for quarter = $418,806, P/starting BV = 1.636
Ending BV for quarter = $437,589, P/ending BV = 1.566

Since March and September are close to the end of Q1 and Q3 respectively, I used the P/ending BV (1.567 for both) as the estimate of IV.


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Author: AdrianC   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/08/2024 9:21 AM
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To compare (let me know if I got any number wrong):

Gator1984:
1 - Operating Earnings at 15X - $160
2 - Equities - $104
3 - Partially Owned Businesses - $19
4 - Cash & Equivalents - $160
5 - Underwriting gains - $16

Total - $457.

DTB:
1 - Operating Earnings at 15X - $151
2 - Equities - $107
3 - Partially Owned Businesses - $12
4 - Cash & Equivalents - $158
5 - Underwriting gains - $16

Total - $443.

AdrianC:
1 - Operating Earnings at 15X - $163 (15x Rolling 4 qtrs)
2 - Equities - $107 (taxes taken out at 21%)
3 - Partially Owned Businesses - $9 (15x Earnings)
4 - Cash & Equivalents - $149 (Cash $305b, fixed $16b, no deduction, subs need their cash)
5 - Underwriting gains - $19 (15x avg of last 23 years $2.793b from upthread)

Total - $447.

I don't get into the details too much, just use the easy to find numbers in the report, but we get similar estimates.

I adjusted to more match up to you guys. The estimate I actually use does not include underwriting gains (Buffett didn't) and I deduct some cash since it will never be available for investment. This results in an estimate of $404. Around $400 is where I would get more interested in buying. I've been a net seller the last couple of years and still have a lot, far too much by any conventional asset allocation.
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Author: Dagdom   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/08/2024 9:43 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 3
The big question for me in terms of how to value Berkshire has been insurance and specifically insurance float. Historically I have like many others assumed zero or some normalized level of underwriting profits and have made no deduction for the float liability.

But if you look back historically this method has consistently undervalued the insurance franchise. The reason of course is that float has grown almost every year with no or few exceptions. Going back to, for example, 2013, hardly an eternity ago, float stood at 77bn. Since then the insurance franchise has amassed an additional ca 90 bn of this free money available for investments. This is 90 bn of cash flow going to the business over the past 10 years. This ability to grow float while maintaining underwriting profitability is a demonstration of the strength of the franchise or moat or whatever you want to call it and it would not be wrong to assign some value to it.

The assumptions that has to back this is of course is that the growth will not reverse, or that any reverse will not happen until far enough into the future.

Growth has slowed down considerably, but adding say 2% float growth capitalized at 10x to the valuation wouldn’t be completely crazy. On the other hand, 30 billion here or there I guess and in the interest of being conservative it makes equal sense to exclude it. But historically it has been a real source of value and if you play around with 5-10% growth numbers it is easy to see how it’s been one of the big reasons for SP500 beating returns.
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/08/2024 9:46 AM
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DTB:
1 - Operating Earnings at 15X - $151
2 - Equities - $107
3 - Partially Owned Businesses - $12
4 - Cash & Equivalents - $158
5 - Underwriting gains - $16

Total - $443.

...

I don't get into the details too much, just use the easy to find numbers in the report, but we get similar estimates.

I adjusted to more match up to you guys. The estimate I actually use does not include underwriting gains (Buffett didn't) and I deduct some cash since it will never be available for investment. This results in an estimate of $404. Around $400 is where I would get more interested in buying. I've been a net seller the last couple of years and still have a lot, far too much by any conventional asset allocation.



4 points:

1. Detail, but I got $15 in underwriting gains. The $443 total is fine though, except see point 4.

2. I don't think you need to deduct cash that is not available for investment - you can be pretty sure Buffett does not have $40b in cash stuffed into his mattress earning 0%, or in a chequing account earning 0.5%. It is cash that is not available for buying an elephant, sure, but it is still worth its nominal value, and is earning a return, currently about 4.5%.

3. In the end, I think the Occidental preferreds and warrants don't need to be added in in grove 3, and I willl stick with my $12 in grove 3, but that is the subject of a separate post.

4.There are a couple of pro-forma adjustments that might make sense, based on happenings this week, and one of them is that it is reasonable to anticipate a one-time step-up in earnings of about 7%. It won't happen this year, but it will probably happen next year. So I would posit that it might be useful to boost operating earnings from $151 to $162, and equities with the lesser future capital gain tax would go from $107 to $113, and underwriting earnings from $15 to $17. That would give me a pro-forma total of $462 instead of $443, if the expected tax cut is realized. That's probably a little too high, since the tax cut hasn't happened yet and will not be permanent, but the $443 I now think is just too low.

DTB
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/08/2024 10:38 AM
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Grove 3) I do include the Oxy preferred and warrants. This is about $10 BB. Do you have these somewhere or am I doing a double count?


I think it is double counting. See Note 5 on p.11 in the Q3 report:

Note 5. Investments in equity securities In 2019, we invested $10 billion in non-voting Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock of Occidental Petroleum Corporation (“Occidental”) and in Occidental common stock warrants. During 2022, we began acquiring common stock of Occidental. Our aggregate voting interest in Occidental common stock exceeded 20% on August 4, 2022, and we adopted the equity method as of that date. See Note 6. Our investments in the Occidental preferred stock and Occidental common stock warrants are recorded at fair value within commercial, industrial and other in the preceding tables. Such investments are not in-substance common stock under GAAP and are not eligible for the equity method.

The 'preceding tables' is on the previous page, a table that summarizes investments in equity securities in 3 lines,

                             Cost basis     Net Unrealized Gains Fair Value December 31, 2023*
Banks, insurance and finance $ 27,136 $ 51,176 $ 78,312
Consumer products $ 34,248 $166,895 $201,143
Commercial, industrial and other $ 48,032 $ 26,355 $ 74,387
Total $109,416 $244,426 $353,842

So it certainly seems like the ~$10b in OXY preferreds and warrants are already counted in that $74,387m of industrial equity investments, i.e. as part of grove 2.


DTB
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Author: rrr12345   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/08/2024 3:27 PM
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I get about $11.44/B-share for the partially owned businesses as of 10.30/24, as follows:

KHC: 325,634,818 shares @ $35.11/share = $12.837B
Deferred tax on capital gains = $0

OXY: 255,281,52 shares @ $51.54/share = $12.157B, minus deferred tax on unrealized capital
Estimated cost basis, per whalewisdom.com, = $50.3968/share
At 21% tax rate, deferred tax = $0.332B
Total value of OXY shares after deferred taxes = $11.825B.
OXY warrants and preferred stock of $10B are included in "investments in equity securities."

Total value of KHC plus OXY holdings, not including warrants and preferred stock, = $24.66B, or $11.44/B-share


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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 12641 
Subject: Re: Back of the envelope
Date: 11/08/2024 4:10 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 2
OXY: 255,281,52 shares @ $51.54/share = $12.157B, minus deferred tax on unrealized capital
Estimated cost basis, per whalewisdom.com, = $50.3968/share
At 21% tax rate, deferred tax = $0.332B
Total value of OXY shares after deferred taxes = $11.825B.
OXY warrants and preferred stock of $10B are included in "investments in equity securities."

Total value of KHC plus OXY holdings, not including warrants and preferred stock, = $24.66B, or $11.44/B-share



I neglected to deduct something for capital gains for these positions (OXY and KHC), but since there are next to no capital gains, I still get about the same $11 per share. But I will update my table in the hope that the deduction will someday be important ): And I will do it with 21% but also with 15%...
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