Really? You ever notice the terms keep changing? He needs to embarrass the other guy. He needs the power.

Need the power? Just depend on the GOP. He does have the votes, right?

Probably. The usual budget hardliners are threatening that this time they're actually going to insist on some fiscal restraint in order to go along with government funding, but nobody really believes them. Heck, restoring the funding to the health care subsidies are possibly on the table - not Freedom Caucus wishlists. So yes, I think that Johnson will be able to corral his folks to get a bill out of the House.

So it's really up to the Senate. Thune doesn't want a shutdown, and Schumer only wants a brief shutdown - so a brief shutdown is the most likely outcome.

It's possible that the Administration looks at the economic numbers and decides they want a lengthy shutdown to deflect blame for what lies ahead...but they also really don't want to lose the midterms, and it's very easy for Democrats to visibly yield and vote for (even sponsor!) a short term funding proposal that the GOP will get blamed for not passing.

So, again, macro...it's hard to see a long shutdown being a likely outcome.

Macroeconomic Trends and Risks FAQ

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