"So we have hints about the how, and the reference to a 90c dollar MAY be a hint about how conservative"

I argued after Buffett's repurchases in Q3 and Q4 of 2018 that the P/B that Buffett paid provided a reasonable way to estimate Buffett's estimate of IV, and now after 75 more reported repurchases and two, telling months in which Buffett did not repurchase stock (April and May of 2022), I am even more convinced that the repurchase P/B provides a reasonable estimate of IV.

For several years now my estimate of IV, using different valuation models and different assumptions within each model, have given IV between 1.5x BV and 1.7x BV. I have chosen to use 1.5x since that was more conservative. However Buffett's repurchases have now forced me to use a best guess for IV that is higher than 1.5x BV. Warren has repurchased stock as high as 1.5x BV, using either beginning BV for the quarter or ending BV for the quarter. Also, as pointed out in this thread, the most reasonable estimate of his required discount to IV seems to be 10%, not 5% as was using previously. That implies an IV of 1.5x BV/0.9, or 1.67x BV.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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