Invest your own money, let compound interest be your leverage, and avoid debt like the plague.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤
No. of Recommendations: 8
Disney is under a lot of pressure right now - specifically with their streaming strategy - but that also creates opportunity as the stock price is looking attractive with limited downside.
Margins are in the tank right now - but they have proven in the past that they can operate at a 15% (or higher) rate. Can they get back to that level?
The big question is what to do with the traditional television assets (ABC, ESPN). Maximizing the value of these is critical to getting back on track - I am pretty confident they can operate the streaming business at acceptable levels (NFLX operates at 15% margin).
Here is a simplistic model - that illustrates the bull case thinking
* Grow revenues at 5% from $80B to $92B in next 3 years
* Improve operating margins to 15%
* This would generate $14B in income
* This would roughly translate to $6 in EPS
tecmo
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tecmo
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No. of Recommendations: 13
Tecmo, this is a really well written post especially in how it encourages thought. But please either mark it OT or what is the best, post it at the dedicated board - in this case the Disney board here:
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?bid=1444I'd you want the Berkshire audience specifically to read the post, them please:
1. Leave the post at its dedicated company board.
2. View the post and copy the URL, then create an OT post on the Berkshire board summarising your post, and paste in the URL reference (so people can read the full post with just one more click).
This applies to Dollar General and all other firms not held by Berkshire Hathaway. This has two benefits: Creates a great focussed discussion of Disney with - even after many years passing - the post history all placed together in one place; and keeps the Berkshire Hathaway board focussed without at all discouraging OT posts that point to the other boards, which is like planting valuable new seeds.
- Manlobbi
No. of Recommendations: 7
post it at the dedicated board
Understandable, to get other boards becoming active.
But also risky. If it doesn't work out (people might shy the effort to look at KMX, DG, DIS and other boards to follow the discussions there) the only(???) really active board could become inactive.
If it works it could be that it just distributed Berkshire posters reading/writing activities over all those boards without generating more traffic or attracting new posters/readers.
(Sorry for being critical, but it's how my mind works.)
No. of Recommendations: 11
What might help direct traffic is a tab that shows all new posts regardless of which board its on
No. of Recommendations: 4
I too am interested in DIS. Have posted a few times on the DIS board but no one else is there. (sad face) I agree the stock is under pressure and IMHO a good long-term opportunity. Personally, I have been accumulating under $90 for some time, so I am happy with the recent drop.
In a funny way, DIS reminds me of Apple, which I have also owned through many ups and downs. I remember when Macs were catching fire and a share of Apple was available for $13. Still, it was a well-run company with great products and a killer brand that was going to be around for a long, long time, so I held it and bought more. That has worked out remarkably well. I feel the same way about DIS. The upside seems so much higher than the downside, and they have a great brand(s) and an experienced team that knows how to execute. More importantly, this is a company and a stock that can grow forever. I'm happy to have a large position in DIS alongside BRK and AAPL my other large, long-term holds.
If they fix the TV problems the stock is worth $150 and probably more depending on what happens in the market for content. They also have to navigate the culture wars. It will be interesting to watch how that all plays out.
Happy to take this to the DIS board any time.
abromber
No. of Recommendations: 3
The business moat remains fundamentally sound, and the brand name is strong. To understand its fundamental moat, I will quote what Warren Buffett said about the business. As usual, the man has the insights to cut to the essence of seemingly complex businesses and the ability to communicate in clear (and even entertaining) ways.
It's kind of nice to be able to recycle Snow White every seven or eight years. You hit a different crowd. It's like having an oil field where you pump out all the oil and sell it. And then it all seeps back in over seven or eight years.
The nice thing about the mouse is that he doesn't have an agent. He is not in there renegotiating every week or every month' If you own the mouse, you own the mouse.
If I thought the children of the world were going to want to be entertained 10 or 20 years from now, and I was betting on who is going to have a special place in the minds of those kids and their parents, I would probably bet on Disney.
He made these comments back in 1996~1997, and the essence has remained unchanged since then.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4632639-disney-st...
No. of Recommendations: 2
As a customer I've just spent 2 weeks as Disney World in August, the parks were humming, the new rides are excellent esp the Rise of the Resistance (Hollywood Studios) Star Wars and Avatar (Animal Kingdom) and Tron in Magic Kingdom. The Guardians of the Galaxy darkened coaster with it's twisting left me feeling green though.
The kids seem hooked and there's plenty of support from future generations.
The shows were particularly good, combing special effects, theatrics , dancing and music.
Merchandising / theming is excellent, they are also selling Lighting Lane tickets to maximize revenue, the resorts looked clean and fresh. Food consumed in the parks was excellent all round, fairly priced and enjoyed by all. Lots of variety too.
Other than that an exceptional mix of the old and new in terms of rides and theming.
I last went during the Great recession and it was dead.... Although the max que time was 5 mins (a plus) then the experience was better this time and the parks seem greatly improved. They have to be on their game with new rides as newer generations are used to immersive VR type gaming.
I've also recently watched the entire 8 Star Wars movies on Disney Plus recently and the content is superb including all the Marvel films.
All round I think Disney are doing a great job and will do well once they sort out their media.
Enjoyable scuttlebutt and accumulating stock and anticipating c$150 by 2027.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I will be taking the kids to Disney Paris in November, lets see...
No. of Recommendations: 0
Can't really comment, the last time I went there was 1994!
No. of Recommendations: 7
For those interested in DIS, I just posted about the CHTR deal on the DIS board. Would welcome others to join in.
abromber
No. of Recommendations: 1
https://youtu.be/MxiaLeNa4jg?si=ABvBzYP977EvIFvDAswath lecture on streaming, includes Disney a conpany I'm thinking about and found the discussion insightful. DIS could be a reasonable buy sub 90, although could easily fall further.
Discusses changes in the industry, comparisons to the music industry and established players vs new, possible future changes and consolidation in the market.
I've been accumulating DIS at sub 90. Not a large position. Trading at levels c10 years ago.
