Some helpful commentary by Abdullah Al Rezwan (MBI Deep Dives) on DG/DLTR's recent results, and the extent to which DG's issues are a cyclical macro issue (versus a competition issue re WMT or TEMU/AMZN:

https://www.mbi-deepdives.com/dg_sept2024/

Also includes some helpful commentary by Alex Morris (TSOH).

I also found the GS Conference transcript more revealing than the recent earnings call, FWIW. Available here: https://archive.ph/bwXWx

It seems to me that there's quite a bit of evidence to support the view that management's view that the $35k consumer is under considerable pressure at the moment, and at least some of DG's current issues are cyclical.

Ally Financial's earnings report this today is another good example (increasing delinquencies in its auto business).

I've decided to hold on to my position for the foreseeable future. My estimate of fair value is lower than it was, but the stock is still well below that estimate.

Falling Knives FAQ

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