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- Manlobbi
Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
No. of Recommendations: 10
Well, anyone who can fog a mirror and reads posts here knows that already. The rekindling of a trade war between the US and China has caused a general decline world-wide in almost all sectors. There is little green to be found, but I found it interesting where that lay. My portfolio is largely foreign biased, but the downdraft cut through those as well as a hot knife through butter.
The exceptions were in the "consumer goods" category - Nestle, Kraft-Heinz, Unilever and the singular green Japanese stock I own - Fast Retail (owner of Uniqlo). While all my other tech stuff was down, bizarrely, Finland's Nokia was up - as were some gold and silver oriented stocks.
so, while Trump raise Indian tariffs to punish them for buying Russian petroleum, but ignore the fact that China buys even higher quantities, he has now levied an additional 165% tariff on Chinese products to punish them for threatening to throttle supply of rare-earth magnets. I am frankly confused by his whipsawing on whether China can buy Nvidia AI processing chips - one group is trying to stifle their push into AI while another is desiring that they become dependent on our technology stack.
Maybe this is supposed to distract us from upcoming Epstein file material? any case, our country is chaotic enough on so many levels, I wish he would have learned by now that it's better to keep it zipped up, rather than taking random pisses on the economy. Watch those who are closest to him pick up signals and time their investments accordingly.
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 0
Family and friends don't eat this stuff like I do.
My advice watch and learn for ghe next few weeks. You won't be out much, but you will gather some ideas on what is happening not just my word for it.
Truth put a fork in it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Bloody yo-yo
Trump, in a post on Truth Social Oct. 12, suggested the situation with China will work out. "Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!" the president wrote.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to still meet in October after Trump threatened to skip their meeting and impose massive tariffs on Beijing in retaliation to new Chinese export controls.
Bessent said Oct. 13 that the Trump administration and China had "substantial communication" over the weekend after Trump threatened to impose a new 100% tariff on imports from China that would take effect Nov. 1.
And the market gave back today what Trumps mouthing off caused on Friday.
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 0
But the bounce was less than 50% of the fall, and the futures are making it look like we are in for another drop today.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Interesting discussion here:
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/13/business/china-... President Donald Trump expressed shock at China’s “surprising” move to unleash sweeping export controls on rare earths, accusing the country of “becoming very hostile.”
But according to Beijing, it was Washington’s expansion of curbs on Chinese firms that ratcheted up tensions and drove it to further tighten its grip on the critical minerals essential in the production of a wide range of electronics, automobiles and semiconductors.
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 4
This is a war where China holds better cards than the U.S. If China turns off shipping rare earth material, our major technology companies grind to a halt. Our impeding the ability of China to profitably sell in the US certainly hurts them, but we are not the only market in the world. In addition, forcing US consumers to pay more (or do without) for products normally purchased from Chinese manufacturers will, by definition raise inflationary pressures. Restriction of advanced chip technology to China will hurt them - unless they find or create alternative channels or products.
While both parties can be substantially hurt, China can exist without our products and markets and we can't without their products.
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 1
You mean China is not playing ball?
I guess there was some sort of miscalculation?
But the bounce was less than 50% of the fall, and the futures are making it look like we are in for another drop today."
No. of Recommendations: 0
If
Wrong word.
China has.
How much is in play? Probably all the critical stuff.
This is possibly going to be a hard landing.
Xi sees us as war mongering. Is that even possible?
No. of Recommendations: 8
While both parties can be substantially hurt, China can exist without our products and markets and we can't without their products.
And let's not ignore how much less stoic Americans are to being deprived. The Chinese are used to it. They will wait us out until the whining reaches too high a volume and US politicians give in.
IP
No. of Recommendations: 2
And let's not ignore how much less stoic Americans are to being deprived. The Chinese are used to it.
Also, there’s nothing they can do about it. In the US, astonishing gerrymandering aside, there is.
David occasionally defeats Goliath, but not usually.
No. of Recommendations: 0
"And let's not ignore how much less stoic Americans are to being deprived."
And neither are the French.
I see France just caved on pension reform to save the Macron government. It seems the French population refuses to see that their social safety net is no longer affordable. France will continue to fund high retirement benefits at the expense of the current worker population.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250905-the...France's public debt has steadily risen for decades, fuelled by chronic budget deficits financed through borrowing on bond markets.
The debt grew to 3.3 trillion euros ($3.9 trillion) in the first three months of this year, or over 48,000 euros per French national.
The debt amounts to 114 percent of France's annual gross domestic product (GDP, a measure of economic output) -- the third highest debt ratio in the eurozone after Greece and Italy.US's debt to GDP is similar to France.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-pm-lecornu-...Macron saves his government (for now) by suspending pension reformhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/65-old-retirees-fra...65-year-old retirees in France now have higher incomes than working-age adults
No. of Recommendations: 0
The Chinese are used to it.
That comes off as racist.
When we all are stuck with it...coming up soon enough....we Americans won't have options either.
Yeah, we vote for real. But damage done won't change overnight.
We are all about to lose a larger part of our retirement funding, SS, Medicare, Medicaid....and the kicker the FDIC when it is needed.
If we do not lose these programs that will be pure luck. It won't be out of the goodness of hearts.
No. of Recommendations: 5
65-year-old retirees in France now have higher incomes than working-age adults
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Post World War II, Western European countries were able to attenuate their defense spending because of their confidence that the US would provide a substantial portion of their defense. This allowed them to provide their populations with substantial social protection.
The current US administration (as well as during the first Trump administration) has made it clear that it is up to Europe to invest in their militaries as the US will be less likely to put feet on the ground to protect them. This, coupled with the aggressive behavior of Russia over the past decade, has forced the European counties to pour money into military upgrades and expansion - as well as providing substantial aid to Ukraine.
In order to balance the budget, something has to give.
We, in the US, have a hard time understanding how Europeans get six weeks vacation a year, excellent medical programs, free education, can't be laid off, have high pensions and early retirement and are willing to settle for far, far less. That said, imagine trying to take away those benefits after they have been taken for granted for generations.
Jeff
No. of Recommendations: 0
"The current US administration (as well as during the first Trump administration) has made it clear that it is up to Europe to invest in their militaries as the US will be less likely to put feet on the ground to protect them. This, coupled with the aggressive behavior of Russia over the past decade,
has forced the European counties to pour money into military upgrades and expansion - as well as providing substantial aid to Ukraine."
It is going to be pricy-$800 billion euros. I wonder where the dinero will come to finance that expenditure? Borrowing?
And the EU won't be ready until 2030.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ukraine-russia-...
